ISSN 2674-8053

India and China: more of the same…(?)

Photo: Yogi Chopra – Himalayan mountain range

The website “Mundo ao Minuto” published on the last day 10 a story regarding recent skirmishes between military troops from India and China on the border lines between both in the icy heights of the Himalayas.

There are two regions whose sovereignty is disputed by them: the first is located in the Ladakh region, on the Indian side, and Xinjiang Autonomous Province, on the Chinese side. This is an almost desert area in the high altitudes of the mountain range, but crossed by a highway that joins two regions particularly sensitive to the PRC: the Autonomous Province of Xinjiang - where the Uighur Muslim separatist movement is concentrated – and Tibet. Hence its strategic importance for the Chinese.

The second is located in what is now the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh.. This dispute is yet another nefarious legacy of English colonialism, that in delineating the borders in the area of ​​Tibet after a confrontation between troops of the British Raj and the Chinese nationalist government, in 1913-14, brought together the litigants in the city of Shimla, in India, where the “Shimla Convention” was signed, that outlined the border “status quo”. India Representatives, of Great Britain and China have signed this agreement, which was soon denounced by Beijing, who did not accept the border map – the so-called “McMahon Line”- attached to the document.

Fruit of this uncertainty, the two neighbors went to war , in 1962. That's when the Chinese took the initiative to "rescue" the territory they considered as theirs throughout the Qing dynasty. (1644-1912), and which to this day they call “Southern Tibet”. This first offensive, at altitudes of over 4,267m, started in 20 October 1962 and it lasted four days. It was followed in the middle of the following month by a more determined, which led the troops of the People's Republic to occupy the foothills of the Cordillera. after the ceasefire, the Chinese made a unilateral retreat to the positions of the beginning of the conflict, creating a “neutral zone”, no military presence.

This status quo has persisted ever since., despite frequent skirmishes. They, However, increased in 2017, leading Beijing to accuse Indian troops “of entering its territory illegally to close a road in the Doklam border area”, another regional imbroglio pitting China against neighboring Bhutan, who asked for help from the traditional Indian ally.

That is, a “lump pit”!!!

According to the website, “the diplomatic crisis had a very negative impact on diplomatic relations, leading China to accuse India of playing “with the fire”, which could lead to an escalation of the conflict.”.

It will be? Let's try to understand the variables that escape the thoughtless alarmism of interpreting the realities of the East with a “western look”.:

India and China are two giants that will lead the big changes in Asia – and in the world – in this century. The other Asian countries – Japan, including - will be, At my point of view, supporting actors, more, or less, relevant (one must consider the ascendant role of Southeast Asia). China and India currently represent around 37% of the entire population of the planet; China is currently home to about 1,4 billion people and India around 1,3 billion. However, it is expected to overtake China as the most populous country in less than a decade, according to a new United Nations report; and on top with more than 50% of its population below the age of 25 years, and more than 65% below 35 years: that is, increasingly abundant and skilled labor, especially in the IT field., and a middle class – i.e, consumer market – one and a half times larger than the current Brazilian population !!!

According to a survey by Bloomberg, ”…more than half of 2 thousand professionals interviewed, of 20 different markets, believe that China and India will have surpassed the United States in world technological innovation until 2035. And emerging countries have shown more confidence in the positive impact of technology on the world than nations with developed economies.… 49% of professionals in developed markets, believe that China and India will become the world's great technological centers by the mid-1990s. 2030, While 59% of respondents in emerging economies are betting that these two nations will dominate the sector”. That is, a radically different scenario from the contemporary “official”.

Yet one more time, there is a cautious doubt…

more rational (?), in this "new world", the unavoidable question remains: will be the “Westphalian” territorial disputes that lead to(iam)bringing India and China into an armed conflict? It will be a war along the lines of the one currently fought between the USA and the PRC for the preservation of postmodern spaces. (T.I. , 5G technology, etc…), what will it give(he) to whomever dominates the leadership of the “post-industrial” planet? And why not a joint venture between China and India in areas of shared interests, very “Asian style” ? This formula seems foreign to the Western “zero-sum” mentality., but in view of the enormous wear and tear that an overly competitive scenario can cause – as we are currently witnessing -, would not be more reasonable a composition?… eastern millennial wisdom…

Important questions for all of us to think about, Brazilians, so lost in defining our destinies…

I suggest to friends to read the original article below:


Chinese and Indian troops clashed in a skirmish on the border

The armed forces of India and China clashed in a brief but aggressive skirmish in the border state of Sikkim., in northeast India, informed the Indian Ministry of Defense.

“Cwe confirm that there has been a confrontation at the border, caused by the aggressive behavior of the two parties and which resulted in minor injuries to the troops”, said the Indian Ministry of Defense, in a statement.

“Troops solve these problems mutually according to established protocols”, added the ministry, in which it also ensured that fighting ceased as a result of dialogue between the parties.

the Indian authorities, However, did not clarify when the incident occurred.

China and India, vying for territories in the Himalayas, went to war on the border in 1962.

Territorial tensions between the two powers rose in mid- 2017, when Beijing accused Indian troops of illegally entering its territory to close a road in the Doklam border area, disputed between China and neighboring Bhutan, who asked for help from the traditional Indian ally.

The diplomatic crisis had a very negative impact on diplomatic relations, leading China to accuse India of playing “with the fire”, which could lead to an escalation of the conflict.

However, the Indian Government withdrew its troops at the end of August of the same year, achieving a decrease in tension.

https://www.noticiasaominuto.com/mundo/1475596/tropas-chinesas-e-indianas-confrontaram-se-numa-escaramuca-na-fronteira?fbclid=IwAR2ytwmkbRxvVQwKBfnDbVum4pWJ8o_9wTwRQOSvwMW3pUAM2qh18hwHsfI
Fausto Godoy
Doctor of Public International Law in Paris. He entered the diplomatic career in 1976, served in Brussels embassies, Buenos Aires, New Delhi, Washington, Beijing, Tokyo, Islamabade (where he was Ambassador of Brazil, in 2004). He also completed transitional missions in Vietnam and Taiwan. Lived 15 years in Asia, where he guided his career, considering that the continent would be the most important of the century 21 - forecast that, now, sees closer and closer to reality.