The impressive economic rise in China, especially in the past three decades, caused an imbalance in global power with unprecedented speed in history. In a blink of an eye, westerners and, in particular, the Americans, were introduced to a new reality: the United States of America was no longer isolated in the position of hegemonic power in the concert of nations. A China, now, he had become a challenger capable of threatening the leadership of the Americans, first economically and, then, keeping the current pace, militarily.
Although the speed of events involving the current competition between China and the USA is unprecedented, the dynamics of a rising power challenging a dominant power is not. This has happened many times in history. When it first occurred, this dispute culminated in a war whose progress was registered for posterity in the masterful work of Thucydides.
Athenian Thucydides was an important historian of ancient Greece, author of âHistory of the Peloponnesian Warâ[1]. Born between the years of 460 e 455 a.C, reported the events of the war between Sparta and Athens as a witness to history, objectively and impartially. As a critical analyst, when reporting objectively the events, sought to interpret their motivations and clarify the circumstances in which the narrated facts were inserted. In addition to these political aspects, as a connoisseur of the art of war practiced at the time, had the technical capacity to accurately describe military operations, as they occurred.
The Peloponnesian War lasted 27 years (of 431 a 404 a.C.) and involved the entire Hellenic world. Thucydides failed to tell the full story, because of his death, who interrupted his account in the year 410. However, to work, in eight books, it was more than enough to leave âan asset always usefulâ, intention expressed by the author, once, âHuman nature being immutable, if certain circumstances reproduce at different times, the facts will be repeated in the same or similar way â.
And it was the repetitions of the circumstances in which a rising power challenged a dominant power throughout history that led to Professor Graham Allison, director ofBelfer Center for Science and International Affairs, from Harvard University, coining the expression âThucydides Trapâ. She first appeared in 2015, in an article in Atlantic magazine: âThe Thucydides Trap: Are the US and China headed for war?â[2]
In the article, Allison analyzes sixteen situations in which an emerging national power has challenged an established power over the past few years. 500 years, and concludes that, in twelve of them, the result was war.
The question that motivates the studies of the author and his team is whether the current generation will be able to avoid war, escaping the fate demonstrated by the overwhelming majority of times when the circumstances surrounding the current Chinese rise have been repeated throughout history.
More than that, the Allison study provides the right lenses, that is, a historical and geopolitical perspective to analyze the current confrontation between China and the United States, understanding it more broadly than a simple economic or military competition.
In 2017, the ideas presented in the article were expanded in the book âOn the Way to War - The United States and China will be able to escape the Thucydides Trap?â, edited in Brazil by Editora Intrinseca, with translation by CĂĄssio de Arantes Leite. In this study, with the depth that a book allows, the author focuses more often on the circumstances that led to the war in the conflicts presented in his article 2015. Discusses doubts, fears and pressures that assaulted the leaders of those moments, your strategic options and your ultimate motivations. For today's reader, aware of the results of each of those decisions, it is very interesting to prove that, as Thucydides found, the immutability of human nature leads men of different ages and cultures to make similar decisions, for similar reasons, dragging their people to war.
But letâs go back to the current dispute. Chinese rise is not just economic. Especially under the chairmanship of Xi Jinping, the current Chinese leader, it also represents an aspiration to regain lost supremacy, a dream of âmaking China big againâ[1].
This desire is strongly based on the Chinese way of thinking, in the ingrained belief that China constituted a perennial civilization with a manifest destiny to greatness and leadership, conditions that have always existed throughout its four thousand years of history and that, by a cyclical accident, ceased to be reality only from the century 19.
Henry Kissinger opens his book âAbout Chinaâ, dealing with this unique perspective: âA special feature of Chinese civilization is that it does not appear to have a beginning. Before history, it appears more as a permanent natural phenomenon than as a conventional nation-state â.
It is in this context that Xi Jinping proposes to build a nation with âa modestly comfortable society and the transformation of China into a modern socialist country., prosperous, powerful, democratic, civilized and harmonious - and to realize the Chinese dream of a great revitalization of the Chinese nation. â[2]
Graham Allison translates this intention as follows: China wants to play the predominant role in Asia, the one who had before the Western meddling of the century 19. Wishes to reestablish full control of the territories it considers to be its own, like Taiwan and Hong Kong, and does not admit movements that it considers separatists, in Xinjiang and Tibet. It aims to recover its sphere of historical influence along the borders and adjacent seas and to obtain the respect of other great powers in the main forums and in the discussions of world themes..
Of course, on the way to achieve those goals, the Chinese would bump into the interests of other peoples and other nations. The restoration of full sovereignty over Taiwan and Hong Kong is against the interests of a large part of the citizens of those places, accustomed to their way of life, in which they enjoy democratic freedoms nonexistent in the Chinese political system. The same kind of consideration, with a greater emphasis on religious freedoms, can be done in relation to Uighurs, a predominantly Islamic ethnic minority that inhabits the distant Chinese province of Xinjiang, in Central Asia, and Tibetan Buddhists, on the border with India.
The control of the seas adjacent to China comes up against the interests of Japanese and Southeast Asian countries, beyond the western Pacific islanders, in the dispute for control of energy resources, fishing areas and trade routes.
And all of these possible points of friction in some way impact US interests in the region.. The United States is committed to maintaining the Taiwanese regime, policy provided for in a specific law[3], promulgated in 1979, and defend without hesitation their interests in the region. The country maintains military contingents in South Korea, Japan, Guam, Philippines, Singapore and Australia, in addition to maintaining a fleet specifically geared to operations in the Pacific Ocean, among them the so-called âFreedom of navigation operationsâ, when their warships transit the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, much to the Chinese's irritation.
But, in addition to the issues surrounding China and third countries, in which the US can get involved, there is also the direct dispute between Chinese and North Americans. A good example is international trade. At the beginning of the 1980, the USA was the main trading partner of most countries. currently, this situation was completely reversed, in favor of China. The figures below illustrate this change, between 1981 e 2018, and the current Chinese dominance in terms of foreign trade.
However, the main dispute between the two countries, which tends to intensify in the coming years, will be for technological supremacy. Fields like artificial intelligence, internet of things, robotic, blockchainand 5th generation internet are some examples. And because they are all technologies with disruptive potential, that give their holders great competitive advantage, potentially generate immense conflicts of interest, that can evolve into international crises.
After all these aspects have been raised, let's go back to the question asked at the beginning of this text: the path to war is inevitable? The USA and China were destined by the Thucydides Trap to a confrontation that would have terrible consequences, not only for the two countries but also for the rest of the international community?
A first aspect to consider is the unprecedented degree of economic interconnection between the two economies. The US and China have a trade flow of approximately US $ 2 billions a day. Just as a comparison, that was the volume of trade between the US and the USSR, during the cold war, per year. Their production chains are interconnected. Thousands of North American companies produce in China and target their consumer market. Apple's largest consumer market outside the US is China, country where the technology giant concentrates 95% of your production. The Starbucks coffee chain has its largest market outside the US in China, where he opened a new store every 15 hours. A General Motors, together with your local affiliates, sells more cars in China than in the US.
Such a degree of economic interdependence, despite greatly increasing the cost of a war, which decreases its possibility, by itself, does not prevent war, as evidenced by several cases from the past, in particular the First World War. It is worth recalling that in the decades leading up to the great war, the economies of the United Kingdom and Germany became so closely intertwined that one side could not inflict economic difficulties on the other without suffering losses.
Another fundamental aspect to be considered is the possibility of ensured mutual destruction. USA and China have nuclear arsenals so substantial and sophisticated that a total war between the two countries would not be a justifiable option. This statement, which served as the basis for the logic of armed peace, that prevailed in the Cold War, is deeply embedded in the security mentality of Western countries. But would it also be among Chinese strategists? It doesn't hurt to remember Mao Zedong's statement, of the decade 1960, that he didnât fear nuclear war because, even if I lost 300 millions of lives, China would still survive.
The aspects mentioned above are just some of the most evident, among a myriad of others that could be raised using the lenses provided by Thucydides. They warn that the risk of a war between the US and China may be greater than most analysts like to admit..
But, after all, Graham Allison does not consider war inevitable. He believes that peace can be maintained, but it will take effort on both sides. Accommodation, negotiation, long-term strategy, correct definition of the vital interests of both nations, prioritization of internal challenges, all of these are strategies that should guide the behavior of the leaders of both countries in order to avoid a repetition of the scourge of war, that affected so many nations that have faced the Thucydides Challenge throughout history.
If successful, will have honored the legacy of the Peloponnesian War History author:
âIf my story is considered useful by those who want an accurate knowledge of the past as an aid to understanding the future - that human events are going on in the course, must resemble him, when I don't reflect it - I will be satisfied. â
Thucydides
[1] At this point, I call the war professionals, especially to the youngest. If you haven't read the Peloponnesian War History, don't waste any more time and read. It is a fundamental exercise for the professional military. The work is available in: <http://funag.gov.br/biblioteca/download/0041-historia_da_guerra_do_peloponeso.pdf>. Access in 22 Feb 2021.
[2] GRAHAM, Allison. The Thucydides Trap: Are the U.S. and China Headed for War? The Atlantic, 24 Set 2015. Available in: <https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/09/united-states-china-war-thucydides-trap/406756/>. Access in 22 Feb 2021.al, in 17 March 2013. In Governance of China, de Xi Jinping
[3] Available in: <https://www.ait.org.tw/our-relationship/policy-history/key-u-s-foreign-policy-documents-region/taiwan-relations-act/>. Access in 23 Feb 2021.
[1] Here is a play on the motto of former President Donald Trump, that promised, I your presidential campaign âto make America great againâ. As we will see, Xi Jinping's intention is strictly the same.
[2] Inauguration speech by Xi Jinping, at the 1st Session of the 12th National People's Assembly
Currently serves on the Ground Operations Command - RATE - in BrasĂlia / DF.
Published articles are of personal opinion. Does not speak on behalf of the Army. The ideas expressed here are the result of his professional experience and the studies he carried out.