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China and the United States: the "Cold War" of the 21st century ?

Former Prime Minister of Australia, Kevin Rudd, recently "sang the stone", according to analyst David E. Sanger, do “New York Times” : “A Cold War between Beijing and Washington is just not possible, but likely…”

This statement further sharpened the suspicions of Western analysts. According to him, it's true “that China is emerging as a far greater strategic adversary than the Soviet Union ever was – a technological threat, a military threat and an economic rival". to Sanger, “while Beijing is expanding its space program, launching three more astronauts to their space station and accelerating their tests of hypersonic missiles designed to defeat American missile defenses, the US announced that it will supply nuclear submarine technology to Australia (the AUKUS alliance, American-British-Australian)”. Still according to him, although President Joe Biden insisted that the UN General Assembly “we are not looking for a new Cold War or a world divided into rigid blocks”, his repeated references to a generation gap between “autocracy and democracy” revived for some the ideology of the years 1950 e 1960”.

That is, the emphasis on Donald Trump's “trade war” fades – EUA X RPC – and the "ideological war" between the "democratic" West intensifies (i.e. USA and allies) and the east (i.e. China “communist” and some more) ?

In this scenario, Western analysts wonder whether the “Xi Jinping factor” responsible for changing the “reductionist” strategy of Beijing's Deng Xiaoping-era leadership, which emphasized the status of “developing country focused on poverty eradication”, to the “hopeful” statements of the last meeting of the CPC Standing Committee, last year, that the People's Republic has eradicated absolute poverty in its territory and accelerates its “engines”, ridge, to win a new stage!

Professor Jude Blanchette, do “Freeman Chair in China Studies” do “Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)” states that Xi Jinping “is a man with a mission“ (“Xi Jinping is a man on a mission”). For him, since he came to power, in 2012, "Xi acted quickly to consolidate his political authority; purge the Communist Party of an endemic corruption that had fueled popular dissatisfaction and fueled the collapse of party discipline; drove away your enemies; “tamed” China's technology sectors and financial conglomerates; crushed internal dissent and vigorously affirmed China's influence on the international stage. In order to protect the “core interests” of the People's Republic, Xi has been confronting neighboring countries as well as more distant ones — especially the United States.”.

Para Blanchette, Xi is leading a wide range of policy initiatives aimed at nothing less than reshaping the global order on terms favorable to the Chinese Communist Party. The first big "sign" would be Beijing's assessment that Western power and influence have entered a phase of decline and, as a result, started a new era of multipolarity, which China could "mould more to your liking". This vision would have taken shape when the US wars in Afghanistan and Iraq became veritable "swamps" and solidified in the wake of the financial crisis in 2008, what the Chinese leadership saw as “the death of US global prestige”. In addition, the British vote to leave the European Union and the election of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States strengthened the consensus at the Chinese summit that the United States, and the West in general, were in decline.

It will be?

Such a scenario would suggest to the political elite that China could opt for strategic patience and simply wait for American power to dwindle. But the renewal of US leadership brought about by the advent of the Biden government, with defined ideological values ​​and activism, lets suggest that Beijing is not willing to “wait and see how long the western decline phase will last”. The growing assertiveness of the Chinese in East and Southeast Asia, and across the planet seem to corroborate this judgment. But its actions so far look increasingly like those in a world of competitive coexistence a little bolder than the “peaceful coexistence” that Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev coined to characterize the old "Cold War".

The immediate “target” of this confrontation appears to be Taiwan. In recent weeks echoes of behavior in this "Cold War" style have resounded, with the Chinese Air Force maneuvering inside Taiwan's "air identification zone", encouraging Joe Biden's “belligerent” statements in defense of the Island, in fact, in compliance with the terms of the "Taiwan Relations Act", of 1979, when Washington transferred its diplomacy from Taipei to Beijing.

But the Chinese have a different perception of the whole process., segundo Yan Xuetong, Professor Emeritus and Dean of the Institute of International Relations, Tsinghua University, from beijing: “China still hopes to be able to confine tensions with Washington to economic dominance and avoid an escalation of military clashes. The most recently “Five-Year Plan” (2021/5) reiterates its commitment to pursuing peace and prosperity across the Taiwan Straits, a policy that has long precluded a potential US-China war over the Island. However, the risk of conflict over Taiwan, especially, has been increasing. Although China has not given up on the principle of peaceful unification, she may abandon him if Taiwan announces its independence. The more other countries support these secessionist policies, plus the People's Liberation Army will carry out military exercises to detain Taiwan. However, Beijing hopes to reach a tacit understanding with Washington that keeping peace in the Taiwan Straits is a shared interest.”, said the Chinese teacher.

I am convinced that this issue – China's unity – is a non-negotiable point for mainland Chinese, and perhaps the only one who can lead Xi Jinping and the PLA leadership to take a truly radical attitude. Given the enormous destruction potential of a confrontation of this magnitude, more sensible seems to both of them to cool off and return to the day.(tri)what I dealt with in my previous post about the issue.

I suggest to friends that they read the EstadĂŁo article:

US intelligence report says China is the biggest threat to the country and the world – International – EstadĂŁo

Fausto Godoy
Doctor of Public International Law in Paris. He entered the diplomatic career in 1976, served in Brussels embassies, Buenos Aires, New Delhi, Washington, Beijing, Tokyo, Islamabade (where he was Ambassador of Brazil, in 2004). He also completed transitional missions in Vietnam and Taiwan. Lived 15 years in Asia, where he guided his career, considering that the continent would be the most important of the century 21 - forecast that, now, sees closer and closer to reality.