ISSN 2674-8053

Russia-Ukraine: the spill over effect of weaponry

Valentyn Onyshchenko's photo

The war between Russia and Ukraine continues with slow steps and uncertain direction. Putin recently declared that he can make use of the options he has at hand., which raised the fear of the use of atomic weapons. Although we do not know what the outcome of this possibility will be, there is another problem that is already real and has not been discussed.: what is the current and future use of the huge amount of weapons made available in this war?

In any war effort, no matter how much there is an attempt to control the resources, the truth is it's hard to really know what's going on. Its value was already relatively high before the war, the West has already surpassed the spending of US$ 10 billions in military support for Ukraine. They are expenses of the most varied, like missile launchers, vehicles, heavy and light weaponry, in addition to ammo (for more information, see BBC Ukraine weapons article: what military equipment is the world giving? https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62002218).

Faced with this immense supply of weapons and the low ability to control its destiny, countries that are part of NATO began to show concern about what happens and will happen with these weapons (for more information, ver o artigo do Financial Times Nato and EU sound over risk of Ukraine weapons smuggling https://www.ft.com/content/bce78c78-b899-4dd2-b3a0-69d789b8aee8).

It is believed that some of this weaponry could be diverted to an illegal arms market.. There is a growing effort to send monitoring missions to verify the fate of weapons. NATO, in its turn, is putting increasing pressure on the Ukrainian government to effectively monitor the use of weapons in the conflict, preventing your deviation.

In the United States there are reports of political movements seeking this greater control. Senator Rand Paul is one of those who has publicly demanded greater control, highlighting that only the United States has already committed with US$ 7,6 billion in this conflict.

These manifestations show the importance that the topic has gained over the last few months.. It must be borne in mind that this is not an illegal small arms market, which would eventually impact on the increase in urban violence. As we're talking about weaponry of war, they end up destined for more organized groups with greater destabilizing potential. There is a real risk that we will see some of the weapons sent to Ukraine being diverted to other conflicts.. separatist movements, ongoing civil wars or even unstable states can be fueled by this weaponry, creating more crisis around the world.

It is essential that international society monitor the issue of armaments more rigorously.

Rodrigo Cintra
Post-Doctorate in Territorial Competitiveness and Creative Industries, by Dinâmia - Center for the Study of Socioeconomic Change, of the Higher Institute of Labor and Enterprise Sciences (ISCTE, Lisboa, Portugal). PhD in International Relations from the University of Brasília (2007). He is Executive Director of Mapa Mundi. ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1484-395X