un hito para la COP26 que se realizará en noviembre en Glasgow?
Tomando en consideración los precios al alza y volátiles del petróleo en el actual escenario incierto propiciado por la pandemia del COVID-19, el shock de suministro experimentado causado por los cierres de la industria, así como una reputación frágil del gobierno brasileño, el análisis propuesto consiste en la elaboración de tres escenarios en torno al objetivo de la estrategia.
En un año donde el mundo, a pesar de sufrir las pandemias, comprometió un récord de $ 501.3 mil millones para la descarbonización, en que empresas, los gobiernos y los hogares invirtieron $ 303,5 mil millones en nueva capacidad de energía renovable (BloombergNEF, 2021), the importance of considering the low-carbon energy transition as a contingency plan for Brazil, arise not only as an economical opportunity but also as a vector to promote ESG practices among its stakeholders.
Notwithstanding, a major issue to be pointed out is that companies who does not develop its competitive advantages in the market, tends to be deteriorated with time. Based on data collected by BloombergNEF (2021), the European major companies are shifting to zero-emission goals. Alrededor de las tres cuartas partes de las emisiones de carbono provienen de la quema de combustibles fósiles., Repsol, Galp, are leading the expansion into the new sustainable energy production market from mid-to-big-size solar and wind plants, to hydrogen fuel cells, biomass, biofuels and geothermal energy generation. The South Korean petrochemical group, SK Innovation, has made a $1.5bi partnership with Plug Power to accelerate the hydrogen economy expansion in Asian Markets (Plug Power Inc, 2021).
De este modo, it’s not difficult to observe such a supportive agenda considering sustainable factors, i.e., low carbon emissions and a shift to green practices, from current world leaders. Taking into consideration the announced 2040 Hydrogen Economy Roadmap by the South Korean government, according to Jeong E. Ha (2019), the Korean government is hoping that by supporting and investing in the development of the hydrogen economy at a national level as an effort to decrease its high unemployment rate, will foster the country’s economic growth. Despite such a strong movement as the one stated above, it is imperative to notice a global shift toward a clean energy revolution.
When world-leader’s agendas, such as Joe Biden’s plan to achieve a carbon-free electrical grid by 2035, promote the dissolution of 2.4 trillion kilowatt-hours fossil-fueled-electricity consumed in the U.S., 60% of total consumed electricity in 2019 (WILLIAMS; LAMPERT, 2021), one of the biggest problems the Brazilian petrochemical industry will face is the neglect of our current government regarding environmental concerns and improvements in the efficiency, sustainability and transformation of the world’s energy sector as a whole.
Scenario 1
Despite the current scenario, marked by enormous challenges caused by the COVID pandemics and the global supply shock, the Brazilian oil sector has managed to reverse the trajectory of its accounting result in the first semester of the year, ending 2020 with a solid operating and financial performance, in the case of Petrobras (2020). Amid such a fast recovery and ability to remediate the risks faced on the former year, the sector should start to solidify its operations, noticing the bottlenecks in the current supply chain model and work towards a better than ever performance. As much as the pandemics evidenced the fragility of the industry, such events must be treated as black swans. Together with a good management, the evidenced flaws will strengthen the industry which tends to head back to previous growth levels faced before COVID-19 in a short period of time.
Scenario 2
For an industry that strongly depends on its international partners for oil exportation, as well as a source of refinement for the heavy oil produced in the country (GRAGNANI, 2019), the actual scenario that Brazil faces should be an alert to the industry. Due to the malfunctioned contingency plan for the COVID-19, besides the upswing in political instability faced in President Jair Bolsonaro’s administration, according to Lima (2020), the country’s foreign direct investments are falling back to historic numbers only seen about 25 year ago.
Taking into consideration all the factors contributing for the current situation in Brazil, together with the lack of environmental and sustainable governance in the sector, a pessimistic approach would encompass that this scenario will tend to remain and get worse. Companies will keep flying out of the country, increasing foreign pressures will affect the current business model adopted by the industry and the sector will fall behind less volatile alternatives and speed up the low-carbon energy transition to sustainable products.
Notwithstanding the progress backstop amid the global situation, companies such as Petrobras and the industry should start elaborating and considering new models based on efficient and sustainable alternatives to its broad oil operations, proving to stakeholders the need to a different resource allocation and vision towards the sustainable energy revolution. Based on the diversification of its operations, the sector will be less prone to volatility and at the same time, while encompassing ESG practices, become ahead of companies that remains in the old orthodox operational model.
REFERENCES
BLOOMBERG NEF. Energy Transition Investment Trends: Tracking global investment in the low-carbon energy transition. BloombergNEF, [s. l.], ene. 2021. Disponible: <https://assets.bbhub.io/professional/sites/24/Energy-Transition-Investment-Trends_Free-Summary_Jan2021.pdf. Acceso en: 3 mar. 2021>.
GRAGNANI, Juliana. Se o Brasil é autossuficiente em petróleo, por que ainda importa o recurso? BBC News Brasil, “Alternativas al Neoliberalismo en América Latina America", 6 nov. 2019. Disponible: <https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/brasil-50316414>. Acceso en: 6 mar. 2021.
HA, Jeong Eun. Hydrogen Economy Plan in Korea. Netherlands Enterprise Agency, [www.clarin.com/politica/macri-duhalde_0_rylbZaVg0Kg.html. l.], 18 ene. 2019. Technology and Science. Disponible: <https://www.rvo.nl/sites/default/files/2019/03/Hydrogen-economy-plan-in-Korea.pdf>. Acceso en: 4 mar. 2021.
LIMA, Mario Sergio. Foreign Investment Into Brazil Hits 25-Year Low. Bloomberg, [www.clarin.com/politica/macri-duhalde_0_rylbZaVg0Kg.html. l.], 26 Mayo 2020. Economics. Disponible: <https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-26/foreign-investment-into-brazil-hits-25-year-low-amid-pandemic?sref=TkXa3Og7>. Acceso en: 6 mar. 2021.
PETROBRAS. Desempenho Financeiro: 4º Trimestre de 2020. 24 feb. 2021. Disponible: <https://petrobras.com.br/fatos-e-dados/>. Acceso en: 6 mar. 2021.
PLUG POWER INC. Plug Power and South Korean SK Group to Form a Strategic Partnership. GLOBE NEWSWIRE. 6 ene. 2021. Disponible: <https://www.ir.plugpower.com/>. Acceso en: 4 mar. 2021.
WILLIAMS, Nia; LAMPERT, Allison. Canada plans hydropower push as Biden looks to clean up U.S. grid. Reuters, CALGARY, Alberta/ MONTREAL, 9 feb. 2021. ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT. Disponible: <https://www.reuters.com/article/us-canada-hydro-idUSKBN2A92JB>. Acceso en: 6 mar. 2021.
