The Afghan press has just reported the fall of Kabul this morning. The Taliban finally occupied the capital, completing a strategic cycle delineated by the advance of its militias through provincial capitals while the leadership discussed in Doha, in Qatar, the formation of a government shared with the constituted authorities of Afghanistan.
It has always been known that, actually, these discussions, which included representatives of the US government and other countries, were destined, at the bottom, to âbuy timeâ for the Taliban rebels to gain ground across the country. Definitely, it was a stage game to "deceive" the western negotiators, that publicly committed to maintaining a minimum of governability in the country, but who had always known that everything was a "marked card game".
the afghan president, Ashraf Ghani, and his group of closest advisers left Afghanistan just hours before insurgent forces surrounded Kabul, this Sunday, and took refuge in neighboring Uzbekistan. Ghani was under enormous pressure throughout the ânegotiationâ process in Doha, alias initiated by Donald Trump, as I mentioned in previous posts. His resignation was one of the Taliban's main demands for them to accept an agreement that, as a matter of fact, never considered. However, the acting minister of the interior, Abdul Satar Mirzakwal, stated that “there is an agreement for transitional administration and orderly transfer of power”. However, Taliban history leaves deep doubt about this claim., even by the example of the whole negotiation process in Doha.
A Kabul resident described the chaotic situation that took place there as Taliban forces approached. According to him, “at this time, the thieves and looters are in the streets trying to rob whoever is leaving the cityâ.
All of this happens as American and Western troops complete the process of leaving the country., fulfilling President Joe Biden's promise to withdraw the entire military contingent from Afghanistan before the 20th anniversary of al Qaeda's attacks on the Twin Towers. in your words…”throughout the 20 years of our country's war in Afghanistan, America sent its best young people, men and women, invested almost US$ 1 trillion dollars, trained more than 300.000 Afghan soldiers and police, equipped them with state-of-the-art military equipment and maintained their air force as part of the longest war in US history…one more year, or another five years of US military presence would have made no difference if the Afghan military cannot or does not maintain its own country.. And an endless American presence in the middle of another country's civil conflict was not acceptable to me.” An irresponsible capitulation at the very least, according to many analysts, given the history of western occupation.
However, aware of the chaos that will ensue in the country, Biden announced that about 5.000 soldiers will be sent to Afghanistan to strengthen the security of the evacuation process for US Embassy personnel. in the meantime, as reported in the press, helicopters landed at the embassy earlier this Sunday to rescue diplomatic personnel, who endeavored to destroy confidential documents existing there. parallel, in a statement issued yesterday, 14/08, Biden said he had instructed the US military and intelligence community to remain mobilized to ensure the US maintains the capability and vigilance to face future threats from Afghanistan.. He warned that if it attacks the population or the interests of the United States, the Taliban will face response “fast and strong” of the US military.
In short, after twenty years of American/Western adventure in Afghanistan, the circle closes the same way it started…
But, what are the consequences?
From the perspective of the Afghan population, a cycle of relative stability and a certain freedom of habits and customs is broken, which was consolidated, but which will now certainly suffer a deep setback with the re-establishment of the Wahhabi and prejudiced patriarchal Taliban principles. A âshariaâ, the rigid law that regulates life in society according to orthodox Islamic principles – anachronistic according to many experts since they do not reflect the coexistence of populations in the more âliberalâ Muslim countries – will once again define and regulate social interaction. This has already confirmed, emphatically the new owners of power in Kabul, even though they claim âto have changed a lot in the last twenty years…â It's not what you're seeing, especially in the most remote regions of the country., according to news circulating in the press. The main victims will be, evidently, the women, that will be confined to the seraglio, they will no longer have access to education and will be forced to âmarryâ the Taliban mujahideen, as has already happened, by the way.
The second question right away – and pungent -, it is the fate of those who either worked for Westerners or had closer contacts with them. There is already news of acts of violence – and even executions -, against these individuals. Once again, the cycle of seeking refuge in neighboring countries is established.… who are not prepared to absorb them. This I witnessed when I was Ambassador to Pakistan and Afghanistan: the situation of this population on Pakistani soil is dramatic â if not tragic., confined in true ghettos, without any opportunity for insertion in the local society. Even worse is the case of Iran, where there is also a large population of Afghan refugees; how do you know, almost all of the Iranian population is from the Shiite current of Islam, while Afghans are Sunni. This dichotomy creates almost insurmountable barriers between the two branches of the same faith. Effect of this could also suffer the West, that it may once again find itself âinvadedâ by these refugees. We are well aware of what happened at the height of the Syrian war… on purpose, the United States has already committed to welcoming individuals who have had closer contact with them., especially those who worked in their diplomatic representations or with the occupation forces..
And from a geopolitical point of view the issue is even more complex. Afghanistan is historically one of the most sensitive regions on the planet. No wonder that it was there that the two greatest empires of the 19th century, the Russian and the British, played their "Great Game". History repeats itself today, with russia, former âinvaderâ to 1991, trying to maintain its ascendancy over its former Soviet republics – Tajikistan and Uzbekistan – neighbors of both, and prevent the spread of Islamic radicalism in its “quintal”; a China, that has Xinjiang and the threat of Muslim Uighurs on the common border, in addition to his interests in tracing the "New Silk Road" through the region, and historical ties with Pakistan, your main regional partner; from Pakistan itself, "ally" of the first hour of the “mujahedeen” Taliban, but that it is threatened to see radicalization spread across its territory; iran, Shiite and natural antagonist because of faith; and India that worries that all this overflows and âinvadesâ the extremely sensitive â and undefined, ultimately â Kashmir region. And there we go…
it looks like we, Brazilians, we are far from all this. Ledo mistake…as we saw in the episode of the Twin Towers, globalization - political and economic - no longer leaves room for alienation. We may suffer the consequences, directly or indirectly, of a dramatic Islamic radicalization that stimulates the propagation of global âterroristâ movements. There are already news of Brazilians joining the Islamic State and the Taliban. In Pangea rediscovered everything matters!
Lesson 1: it would have been better for the Americans and Westerners not to send permanent troops to Afghanistan; so many lives would not have been lost in vain; Lesson 2: as I've analyzed in previous posts, it is up to the Afghans to choose their own destiny through the assembly of tribal leaders, who decides for the multiplicity of ethnicities and tribes that make up their civilization. Or how would someone say…âitÂŽs the Loya Jirgaâ, stupid!
Tragic!!!!
I suggest to friends to read the article below:
