Polemizando…
Today's Estadão reports laconically, in a page footer, a question that has immense significance for the two heirs of one of the most dramatic spoils in the history of postcolonialism: the dispute between the People's Republic of China (RPC) and the Republic of China (ROC) for the legitimate representation of China before the international community:
“NICARAGUA ANNOUNCED YESTERDAY THAT IT HAS BREAKDOWN DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS WITH TAIWAN AND NOW, FOR THE GOVERNMENT OF DANIEL ORTEGA THERE IS ONLY ONE CHINA ,SECOND DECLARED HIS CHANCELOR, DENIS MONCADA. “THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA IS THE ONLY LEGITIMATE GOVERNMENT TO REPRESENT THE WHOLE OF CHINA , AND TAIWAN IS AN INALIENABLE PART OF CHINESE TERRITORY, MONCADA SAID”
What seems to be a topic far from our reality can bring, as a matter of fact, disastrous consequences for everyone, for being able to give rise to a series of complex developments for the balance of the Asia-Pacific region, and as a result of the entire planet: the growing decrease in the number of countries that recognize Taiwan as the legitimate representative of China. Today's ad now leaves just over a dozen -14, as a matter of fact – of States that maintain official diplomatic relations with the Island, fueled by high financial costs for Taipei. Most of them are in the Americas – Haiti, Honduras, Paraguay, Saint Vincent e Granadinas, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia and Belize. In Africa, only Essuatini (ex Swaziland) still maintains loyalty to the island. The rest is made up of small countries in Polynesia and Micronesia – Tuvalu, Nauru, the Marshall Islands and Palau. This trend has accelerated in recent years.: in 2017, were 20 the countries that recognized Taiwan; in 2018, were 17; in 2019, 15; and finally, in this year, 14. Now, with the departure of Nicaragua, become 13.
The question is how Taiwan will survive as an internationally recognized “country”. According to Public International Law, for a State to be considered as such, the existence of five elements is essential.: 1) population, that is, the set of individuals united by common bonds; 2) territory, the physical or spatial base where the State exclusively exercises its sovereignty; 3) self-government and independent; 4) goal, translated into the idea of the State pursuing an end; e, Finally 5) ability to enter into relations with other states.
An “academicist” reading leads us to conclude that the island has all these prerequisites, but keeping this disruptive trend, can(á)the day would come when the Republic of China will no longer be recognized by any country and its legal personality will escape it to interact as a State with other States. It would lack this fifth element, that configures sovereignty.
And there?
How do you know, the Chinese Communist Party considers Taiwan as an inseparable part of its territory. Beijing refuses to maintain diplomatic ties with any country that recognizes Taiwan, and has spent much of the last forty years trying to isolate the Island.. Its growing role on the international stage seems to signal to many analysts that the transfer of sovereignty from Taipei to Beijing is almost irresistible.
Taiwan, in its turn, has great relevance as a "country". Constitutionally, the ROC has not renounced its claim that it is the only legitimate government in all of China, although, obviously, fail to turn this rhetoric into reality due to the disparity of forces. Even so, some of your former representatives, como os presidentes Lee Teng-hui e Chen Shui-bian, maintained the speech of the Kuomintang party – which has its roots in the continent – that the Republic of China is a sovereign country and, therefore, that there is no need for a formal declaration of independence..
In demographic terms, its population, estimated at about 23,5 millions of people, is bigger than several european countries, for example. And its rapid industrialization and growth in the second half of the 20th century earned it the nickname of the “Taiwan miracle”. Fruit of this commitment, the Island is considered one of the “Four Asian Tigers”. your economy, capitalist in nature, is driven by exports, with the gradual decline in state involvement and, about everything, with great emphasis on foreign trade. Fruit of this, Taiwan currently ranks 21st among the largest economies on the planet. Your technology industry plays key role on the global stage. The real growth of the gross domestic product was, average, of 8% during the last three decades, focused on exports, promoted mainly by medium and small companies. Fruit of these practices, the trade surplus is substantial and foreign reserves are the third largest in the world.
It is in this context that since the beginning of the decade of 1990 the economic ties with the Continent have been increasingly intense… and prolific. In fact, the People's Republic of China is the Republic of China's main trading partner, which invests massively in the mainland industries. For this reason, near 10% Taiwanese workforce works in mainland China, often in charge of their own companies. This leads several analysts to claim that the island's economy is increasingly dependent on the People's Republic.
How to hide this reality?
However, sob or mandate of President Xi Jinping, relations between Taipei and Beijing have deteriorated to levels not seen for decades. As I posted earlier, last October PRC military planes made threatening maneuvers in border airspaces off the Taiwan Strait. Meanwhile, the United States has sought to bring reinforcements to the island in compliance with the "Taiwan Relations Act", of 1979, by which Washington pledged to its security, embodied by large arms sales, high-profile visits from US officials and increasingly incisive rhetoric ("belligerent"?) of President Joe Biden in defense of the safety of the Republic of China.
what will be the outcome? In my research I anticipated three possible scenarios: 1) Taiwan's unilateral declaration of independence, with a military confrontation of incalculable consequences, for the involvement of alien forces in the theater of war, in a particularly sensitive region of the planet; 2) annexation by the Continent, not likely either, despite Beijing's rhetoric, due to the resistance of the Taiwanese population and the mobilization of the international community; e 3) the most plausible, for me, the deal, waiting for the unfolding of History to equate the coexistence between the two sides of the Strait, perhaps in the form of a Confederation, like the British “Commonwealth”. This would be the most sensible solution., At my point of view, and the more "Asian" for its emphasis on the Confucian archetype of “search for harmony”.
Deng Xiaoping was quite right when he said that Mao Zedong and Chiang Kai-shek should have sought to resolve the issue from the start.. The more time passes, the harder it becomes to find a solution to this challenge.…
To be continued (surely…)
I suggest to friends to read the article “The Guardian” below:
