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Chronicle of the announced death (II)… or the imminence of the Afghan tragedy

In the edition of 13/7/2021 EstadĂŁo replicates an article from “The Economist” whose title – “US mission in Afghanistan was a fiasco” – is tragically self-explanatory. Using historical memory, this script looks like “dĂ©jĂ  vu”: the same happened in vietnam, in iraq, in Libya, in Syria; and as with these countries, the cycle of the American/Western presence in Afghanistan ends the same way it always does: a fiasco, as "The Economist" qualifies.

The Taliban is already preparing to occupy the space left by Western troops and, according to the vast majority of analysts, very soon it will again assume absolute power in Kabul and will again impose ultra-conservative Islamic governance, based on the strict Muslim legal code – Sharia -, like what happened during the period in which he “reigned” unchallenged in the region, of 1996 a 2001, until the attack by the Al Qaeda group – radical current of the Taliban– to the Twin Towers launched George W's “terror hunt”. Bush and resulted in the invasion of Afghanistan by American/NATO troops, that we all remember.

President Ashraf Ghani's government is unable to resist the Taliban onslaught. Not only is it economically and politically depleted, and troops unprepared to take on the country's defense, otherwise the power struggle between him and Prime Minister Abdullah Abdullah also persists. In addition to this, the various tribes – many of them staunch enemies of the Sunni Taliban, by the way – have “vested interests” in the pulverization of governance. This scenario, by the way, flows whenever a power vacuum is created in the country. Only those who have lived with the complexity of inter-ethnic relations in Afghanistan can appreciate the chaos that is foreseen: the same scenario, by the way, which followed the equally untimely departure of Soviet troops in 1991. That is, History is revived…we're just talking about individuals, families and clans that will suffer the harmful consequences of these destabilizing policies. And once again neighboring Pakistan and Iran will be “invaded” by thousands of refugees, adding even greater instability to the region.

By the way, let us remember that President Joe Biden assured his colleague Ashraf Ghan, at the meeting they recently held in Washington (cf. my post 25/06), que “”we’re going to stick with you and we’re going to do our best to see to it you have the tools you need”. Referendum, White House spokeswoman, Jen Psaki, stated in a statement, that “the United States is committed to supporting the Afghan people by providing diplomatic assistance, economic and humanitarian support to the Afghan people, including women, Afghan girls and minorities... The United States will remain deeply engaged with the government of Afghanistan to ensure that the country never again becomes a safe haven for terrorist groups that pose a threat to the U.S. homeland... The United States continues to fully support the process of ongoing peace and encourage all Afghan parties to meaningfully participate in negotiations to end the conflict.”

This dubious game had already been, by the way, outlined in the meetings that, even during the Trump administration, and on the initiative of this, Americans and Taliban – until then enemies – started to meet in Doha, in Qatar. An agreement emerged from them that allowed the exchange of prisoners, by default – and in the absence – of the legitimate government of Afghanistan. Strategy, not minimum, insidious. Is this exercise of “real politik” justified?? Above all, starting from a government that strives for the defense and imposition of ethics among States? 

What is concluded, following the analysts, is the deep ignorance of Americans/Westerners regarding the social psyche of Afghans. As the columnist for “The Economist” states…”if the wars in Vietnam and (to a lesser extent) of Iraq inspired generations of experts in the field, the small cast of American Afghanistan experts has changed little since 2001. How he spent a lot of time in the country during the first decade of the American mission, although only a short time in the second, This columnist is sometimes mistaken for an expert. This shows how low the standard has been set for expertise in Afghanistan”. 

And how do Afghans feel??  

I included in this post a video from the “Public Broadcasting System” (PBS) intitulado “Afghan militias forced to fight Taliban blame America’s abandonment”, which clearly demonstrates the feeling of abandonment and concern with which the Afghan leadership foresees the coming times. The question that doesn't want to be silenced, in all this tragedy revisited, It is with what parameters the – circumstantial – holders of global power can impose their “erga omnes” values? E, Above all, de que forma arcarĂŁo eles com as consequĂȘncias do fracasso de seus atos?

Read too Chronicle of the announced death (I)
 ou a tragédia afegã.

Sugiro aos amigos que leiam a matĂ©ria do “The Economist” e assistam ao vĂ­deo do PBS

https://internacional.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,the-economist-missao-dos-eua-no-afeganistao-foi-um-fiasco,70003776648?utm_source=estadao%3Afacebook&utm_medium=link&fbclid=IwAR2KH98HYeplZRSK4Y9ujIWNFywL_5j4ZV4ymZvD0RblnJqFJnyY91c8b9E

Fausto Godoy
Doctor of Public International Law in Paris. He entered the diplomatic career in 1976, served in Brussels embassies, Buenos Aires, New Delhi, Washington, Beijing, Tokyo, Islamabade (where he was Ambassador of Brazil, in 2004). He also completed transitional missions in Vietnam and Taiwan. Lived 15 years in Asia, where he guided his career, considering that the continent would be the most important of the century 21 - forecast that, now, sees closer and closer to reality.