Russia sent yesterday, 06/01, troops to Kazakhstan to contain the growing violence that has gripped the population that is protesting against rising fuel prices. This is the first time such demonstrations have taken place in the country.. Clashes with police forces have already left dozens dead..
Moscow heeded President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's request, that even the âresignationâ of former President Nursultan Nazarbayev, in 2019, held the post of Prime Minister of the country. Nazarbayev presided over Kazakhstan for nearly three decades, from 1990, when the dissolution of the Soviet Union created a power vacuum in all its former republics â Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan â and the challenge for the new leadership, made up of KGB members trained in the Moscow, of having to take the reins of the five republics that, suddenly, became âorphansâ.
In this complex context, The great dilemma that has posed for everyone over these few thirty years of autonomy has been to find a formula that frees them from the Russian âshacklesâ and inserts them into a globalizing world., without prodding, However, a ex-“godmother”. Some have been more successful, like Kazakhstan; others, like Tajikistan, are still encysted in the same autocratic leadership, to President Emomali Rahmov, who took power in 1994, shortly after receipt of the Moscow âbootyâ.
common, everyoneâs mistrust of âacceptingâ a new hegemon among them that repeats the Soviet experience remains. For this reason, the relationships between the five remain âdistantâ despite the shared past. the bond of union – that has been explored, by the way, by the Saudis through funding for the reconstruction of mosques and madrasas -, is the faith in Islam, that the years of Marxist atheism drove away from public life. I saw this very clearly when I served in the then-Astana, now renamed Nursultan, the Kazakh capital revamped to demonstrate in the contemporaneity of its architecture (I suggest friends to see the photos) Kazakh leadership's commitment to modernity and an autonomous future.
However,… not so much, still, to judge Tokayev's appeal to Vladimir Puntin for Russia to intervene in the conflict. It is, strategically, decided to do so through the âCollective Security Treaty Organizationâ (OTSC), intergovernmental military organization created, in 1992, by Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan, and formalized in 2002, through the Treaty of Tashkent, shaping what analysts consider the âpost-Soviet NATOâ. Evidently, it's an alibi for the russians, since the bulk of the troops will be constituted by them. The contingents of other countries, if there are significant, will not be able to form a minimally balanced plurinational army. That is, it would be a new Russian âinvasionâ, âby invitationâ, just like in afghanistan, in 1971?
Several questions arise in this context.. The first would be the markedly ethnic-religious bias that the conflict can assume, even in the light of the experience of the USSR. The question that does not want to be silent is whether the Kazakh population, majority muslim – 72% – would again accept the arrival of white and orthodox Russians, since she has been sneaking away her remnants from public service, forcing them, like this, to emigrate, for lack of job, and in this way ârekazakhâ society.
But the main challenge will be the Russians' political presence on Kazakh soil.. This is, by the way, for me, the reason for Moscow's insistence on the formation of a plurinational contingent: a justification to counterbalance the negative international repercussions of the crisis on the border with Ukraine (?). Those of us who have had the opportunity to live in Kazakhstan are aware of the strength of Russian power in the region.. I usually say that Imperial Russia has existed since the time when the political center of the territory was centered on Moscow.. The vast space now called âRussiaâ covers an area whose rulers have always been deeply convinced of their hegemony over the nomadic tribes of Central Asia.. The USSR was just a chapter, for me, in the long history of power (with a capital P) from Moscow. The Soviet Union fell apart, but the Kremlin remains aware of its ability to radiate, and in the subconscious, about everything, from the nearest neighborhood.
And Kazakhstan is a key piece on this board. Its soil is immensely rich in mineral products and fossil fuels.. The country has the second largest uranium reserves in the world., chrome, lead and zinc; the third largest manganese deposit; the fifth largest copper reserve; and is ranked among the top ten coal producers, world iron and gold. even more significant, currently holds the 11th largest proven reserve of oil and natural gas on the planet. And so far it has been ruled by a âprogressiveâ elite., despite the prejudices of the West, oriented to insert the country in the 21st century, as attested by the âKazakhstan 2050â Plan, that the government has set as one of the main goals for the coming years: despite its huge deposit of fossil fuels, transitioning to a âgreen economyâ, in 2050.
These riches fuel the ambition of the great regional powers, including neighboring China, mainly, which included the country in the energy corridor of the âBelt and Road Initiativeâ, the âNew Silk Roadâ, Xi Jinping's hegemonic economic project.
A Russian âfrontâ, southwest â Ukraine â and a Russian âfrontâ, Southeast â Kazakhstan : wouldn't be a bit excessive for Vladimir Putin's ambitions?
Russia… e China…?
To be (surely) continued…
I suggest friends to read the article below, that EstadĂŁo published today:
https://internacional.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,government-of-kazakhstan-resigns-after-protests-caused-by-increase-in-fuel-price,70003941906?
