1. Introduction
This analysis aims to present three official documents that, among others, form the Grand Strategy of the People's Republic of China. Those that most directly relate to the area of Security and Defense and that impact Brazilian Foreign Policy were chosen., consequently being of interest for the planning and execution of the international activities of the Brazilian Army. These are the documents “Global Community of Shared Future”, “Belt and Road Initiative” and “Global Security Initiative”.
Chairman Xi Jinping, from China, has a very clear idea of the direction in which he wants to take the country under his leadership. He has already summarized his desire through the formulation of the “Chinese dream” represented by the “great revitalization of the Chinese nation” [1]. This is a nationalist vision, originated in the republican movement that overthrew the Qing Dynasty, at the beginning of the 20th century, and which aims to strengthen the country, restoring its great power status, a true quest to regain lost greatness. According to this understanding, the approximately one hundred years that passed between the First Opium War (1839), still in the Qing Dynasty, and the victory of the Communist Revolution (1949) constitute the “century of shame” in which China lost its greatness due to the plundering of its riches by the colonialist powers and Japan. The great revitalization of the Chinese nation is a concept that includes political dimensions, economic, military, scientific-technological, social and environmental, all of them aimed at “national reconstruction”.
This is a concept directly related to that of “Grand Strategy”. According to Rushi Doshi (2021), Grand Strategy is a theory of how the state achieves its grand security-related objectives in a way that is at the same time intentional, coordinate, and implemented by the multiple means that the State has at its disposal: military, economic and political. That is, It is the responsibility of the government as a whole, extrapolating specific areas or sectors. Still according to Doshi, What makes a strategy “great” is not simply the size of the strategic objectives being pursued, but also the fact that different means at the disposal of the State are used to achieve this. This kind of coordination ability is rare, so that the vast majority of States do not have a Grand Strategy.
In the peculiar Chinese system of government, where the “Party controls everything” (Friedberg, 2023), The State Council of the People's Republic of China is the highest body of executive power, being this power, as much as the judiciary, subordinate to the legislature led by the Communist Party. This is a structure that covers all ministries and is currently led by Premier Li Qiang, who took office in March 2023.
The State Council has a page on the world wide web (english.www.gov.cn), where a series of official Chinese government documents are published. Among these, ninety-seven White Papers are listed, produced between 31 March 2011 e 23 January 2024. Among these, The document A Global Community of Shared Future stands out: China’s Proposals and Actions.[2]
It is important to highlight, from the beginning, that the documents briefly presented below are declaratory, exposing a series of intentions that, evidently, they must be compared with empirical reality so that a value judgment can be established about their real application in practical terms.
2. The “Global Community of Shared Future”
Published in September 2023, has thirty-seven pages, divided into a preface, five sections and a conclusion. It deals with proposals and actions that the People's Republic of China considers to be its contributions to global efforts to protect the Earth – the shared home of all humanity – and “create a better and more prosperous future for all”.. In an almost poetic language, the document states that “to build a global community of shared future, all people, every country and every individual – our destinies are interconnected – must stand together in adversity and no matter how difficult it is, navigate toward greater harmony on this planet we call home.”.
According to the text, the idea of a global community with a shared future, launched by President Xi Jinping in 2013, has been gaining international support. The document states that from the bilateral to the multilateral dimension, and from regional to global, innovative results would have been achieved on all fronts. The four initiatives that underlie the proposal, the Belt and Road Initiative, the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative and the Global Civilization Initiative, would have taken root and borne fruit, “bringing prosperity and stability to the world and creating substantive benefits for people”.
The idea is emphasized that interdependence between nations is a predominant trend throughout history, which has been intensified by current advances in information technology, taking countries to an unprecedented point of interconnection and interdependence. But, at the same time as the world reaches such a level of interdependence, humanity is faced with global challenges that require a unified response from all nations. The document points out that peace deficits, development, security and governance can only be addressed by the international community working together.
Like this, it is reaffirmed that China defends a new type of international relations, based on “mutual respect, in equity, in justice and cooperation beneficial to all”, with the aim of developing global partnerships and “building a community with a shared future for humanity”.
By pointing out the paths to be followed to achieve this “shared future”, the document indicates some solutions. The first would be the search for a new type of globalization, that would overcome the problems highlighted in the current model of international relations, in which economic globalization would not reflect the demands, nor would it represent the interests of developing countries. To “lei da selva, The zero-sum game and the win-lose or winner-take-all mentality would exacerbate the divide between rich and poor, as would be evidenced by the growing gap between developed and developing countries, and within developed countries.
Instead, countries should pursue a policy of openness and explicitly oppose protectionism, the construction of fences and barriers and unilateral sanctions, so as to connect economies and jointly build an open global economy.
The document states that China defends peace, the development, equity, justice, democracy and freedom, as the common values of humanity. However – and this is important – it highlights that different civilizations have different understandings of the nature of these values.. And makes a comparison with Coca-Cola, in clear criticism of the United States.
Democracy and freedom are the common goals of humanity. There is no single model of democracy that is universally applicable, far less a superior one. Democracy is not Coca-Cola, tasting the same across the world as the syrup is produced in one single country. Democracy is not an ornament, but a solution to real problems. Attempts to monopolize the “patent” of democracy, arbitrarily define the “standards” of democracy, and fabricate a false narrative of “democracy versus authoritarianism” to provoke confrontation between political systems and ideologies are practices of fake democracy. Promoting the common values of humanity is not about canonizing the values of any particular country, but about seeking common ground while reserving differences, harmony without uniformity, and fully respecting the diversity of civilizations and the right of all countries to independently choose their social systems and development paths. (China, 2023)
The excerpt highlighted above, that uses Coca-Cola as a metaphor, expresses Chinese views on democracy and freedom, emphasizing a diversity of democratic models and the rejection of the imposition of a single universal standard. Thus, democracy and freedom are common goals for all humanity. However, the document argues that there is no single model of democracy that can be universally applied, much less one that is superior to the others. This statement suggests that each country should have the freedom to develop its own form of democracy, adapted to your specific conditions and needs. This view is in line with China's diplomatic approach, which advocates non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries – and, therefore, non-interference by foreign powers in their own affairs, like Taiwan, Tibet e Xinjiang, for example – and the promotion of a multipolar world where different political systems and development models can coexist peacefully. Through this statement, to China is, at the same time, responding to Western criticism of its political system and promoting its vision of an international order that would be, according to your understanding, more inclusive and diverse.
In the last section of the document, The Chinese government lists what it considers to be the country's main contributions towards building a humanity with a shared future.
Then, now addresses the three global initiatives that were launched concomitantly with the Humanity Initiative for a Shared Future: the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative, and the Global Civilization Initiative.
Through the Global Development Initiative, China presents what it says is its commitment to global development. The fundamental objective of the initiative would be to accelerate the implementation of the Agenda 2030 UN for Sustainable Development. In this way, the document goes on to present practical initiatives, such as the creation of a fund aimed at global development and South-South cooperation, in the value of US $ 4 billion, in addition to many other bilateral and multilateral cooperation initiatives.
Through the Global Security Initiative, China says it seeks to work with the international community to uphold the spirit of the United Nations Charter, addressing traditional and non-traditional security risks and challenges with a “win-win mentality and creating a new path to security that features dialogue over confrontation, partnership over alliance, and win-win outcomes over zero-sum games”. In this sense, the document lists a series of initiatives in which China would play a relevant role in finding solutions to serious international security issues, highlighting its effective military performance in UN peacekeeping missions. This initiative will be further detailed later, in this document.
Through the Global Civilization Initiative, China defends respect for the diversity of civilizations, its common values and closer international exchange and cooperation. The Global Civilization Initiative makes “a sincere call for the world to improve exchanges and dialogue between civilizations and promote human progress through inclusion and mutual learning, inspiring the construction of a global community with a shared future”.
The three initiatives above resonate aspects of Moral Realism, an International Relations theory developed by Chinese professor Yan Xuetong. Yan (2019) believes that China will only surpass the US in leadership in the International System if it adopts the right policies, being a “large and responsible” State. This won't just happen because of Chinese stocks, but rather based on the perception that other states have of the attitudes of the eastern power. Said another way, China will only be “great and responsible” if it is seen that way by other countries. For this to be achieved, Moral Realism emphasizes the moral values of “righteousness and benevolence” overriding the Western values of “equality and democracy”. The theory calls for a policy of leadership by example, that would avoid “double standards”, that Yan identifies in Western practices, especially in the USA.
It is also inevitable to relate the text to what Amitav Acharya (2019) called Chinese “Cultural Idealism”. According to this author, there is a moral model, behavioral, affective and cultural in Chinese identity, coming from an ancient and traditional culture, that would be prone to mutual understanding, and cooperation between nations in search of peace and global governance.
Like this, It is clear that Chinese strategists seek, through the document, demonstrate that the future they imagine for humanity is strongly based on the integration of Chinese cultural values and diplomatic principles, promoting a vision that “reflects both its historical heritage and its modern global aspirations”. Try, therefore, of a new model of International Order, that would overcome the current Liberal Order, erected post-war and led by the United States.
It is clear that what is expressed in the document is what the Chinese State declares to practice. The declared policies are not always those actually practiced, and reading must always be carried out critically and with this fact in mind.
Finally, o documento “A Global Community of Shared Future: China’s Proposals and Actions” presents several elements that indicate its connection with a Chinese Grand Strategy, as defined by Rushi Doshi (2021) on the intentional coordination of military assets, economic and political objectives to achieve long-term strategic objectives. Here is some evidence to that effect:
- Coordination of Global Policies and Initiatives. The document details several Chinese initiatives, such as the aforementioned Belt and Road Initiative, Global Development Initiative, Global Security Initiative, and Global Civilization Initiative. These initiatives clearly constitute coordinated efforts that integrate economic means, political and security efforts to strengthen China's global influence and shape a new international order more favorable to Chinese interests.
- Proposition of a New International Order. The document outlines China’s vision for a “shared future”, that challenges the current Western-led international order and proposes a new approach to global governance, international cooperation and collective security. This vision includes promoting a “new approach to international relations”, that emphasizes mutual respect, justice, equality and beneficial cooperation for all.
- Integration of Cultural and Diplomatic Values. The document also emphasizes the integration of Chinese cultural values, diplomatic traditions and historical lessons in China's foreign practices and strategy. This indicates a deliberate attempt to shape global perceptions of China and position its traditions and values as fundamental to the future of global governance..
- Focus on Security and Sustainable Development. There is a significant effort to connect development initiatives with global security and stability, reflecting a holistic approach that links economic growth with security and political influence. This is evident in the effort to promote security through development and vice versa, arguing that security and development are inseparable and fundamental to international stability.
- Responding to Global Challenges with Chinese Initiatives. Through various proposals, such as the Global Security Initiative and the Global Civilization Initiative, China aims to position itself as a leading force in tackling global challenges, proposing solutions that align international interests with its vision and leadership, reflecting a comprehensive strategy to increase its influence and shape the international order in accordance with its interests.
3. The Belt and Road Initiative
The document that deals with the Belt and Road Initiative (ICR) [3], Portuguese translation preferred by the Chinese for “Yīdài yīlù 一带一路” – “Belt and Road Initiative”, in English, or, as it is also known in Brazil, the “New Silk Road”, was published in October 2023, although the Initiative is well before that. It is a twenty-three page argument, consisting of a preamble, five chapters and a conclusion.
no text, a ICR, proposed by President Xi Jinping in 2013, is presented as “a platform for building a global community with a shared future”. In this sense, we seek to emphasize the mutually beneficial nature of the initiative's projects, that would be “proposed by China, but belonging to the whole world”.
The text makes a historical relationship between the “Belt” and the ancestral silk route, who more than two thousand years ago connected East and West through caravans that crossed the deserts to promote trade, driving regional development and prosperity and shaping the “Silk Road spirit, characterized by peace and cooperation, openness and inclusion, mutual learning and benefit”. According to the narrative of the document, the “Cinturão” was not just a commercial enterprise, but also an experience of great cultural exchanges, which provided a great impetus to the progress of humanity.
The “Route”, in its turn, historically correlates with the sea routes followed by past navigators, with the same purposes and gains attributed to the “Cinturão”. Thereby, the document seeks to make a historical connection with a past of cooperation and mutual gains (a “win-win” relationship) in the relationship between China and different peoples.
There is a clear effort to present the initiative as being “open and inclusive”, since the projects promoted by it would be the result of extensive consultations, joint contributions, and shared benefits. The development resulting from the initiatives would contribute to the construction of a more peaceful world, more prosperous and more open, with more innovation and social progress.
In this sense, the document states that, to promote greater connectivity through ICR cooperation, China will seek to “facilitate political coordination, infrastructure connectivity, unimpeded trade, financial integration and closer ties between people”.
As it turns out, the Initiative is presented as a tool for the development not only of China, but for everyone. States that economic globalization continues to be an irreversible trend, and that a world in which countries return to a state of isolation is unthinkable. However, according to the Chinese, economic globalization has been dominated by a few countries that have not contributed to common development that brings benefits to all. Instead, always according to the text, would have increased the difference between rich and poor, between developed and developing countries, and even within developed countries themselves.
In this way, developing countries would have benefited little from economic globalization and would even have lost their capacity for independent development, which would make it difficult to access the path of modernization. In a veiled criticism of the US, the text asserts that “some countries would practice unilateralism, protectionism and hegemonism, hindering economic globalization and, with this stance, would be threatening to trigger the occurrence of a global economic recession.”.
Attentive to the spirit of the time and the changes imposed by the climate crisis, the document presents the ICR as a way for China to share its experience in renewable energy production, environmental protection and clean production, employing technology, products and expertise in promoting green development.
The document insists that the Initiative is based on principles of broad consultation, joint contributions and shared benefits. Advocates win-win cooperation in the pursuit of a greater good and shared interests. Emphasizes that all countries are participants, equal contributors and beneficiaries, and encourages economic integration, interconnected development and sharing of achievements.
Like this, a project that aims, in practice, financing and construction of infrastructure works that will benefit trade between different countries and China, is presented as a true panacea, a passport to a much better world for all nations.
Qualitative analysis of the text, one can clearly see several signs that he aligns himself with a Chinese Grand Strategy, in the terms presented by Doshi (2021):
- Alignment with Chinese strategic objectives. The document highlights that the Belt and Road Initiative is a modern extension of the ancient silk roads and aims to promote a global community with a shared future. This aligns with Chinese strategic goals of establishing deeper influence on a global scale., through creating economic connections, stronger political and cultural, especially between Asia, Europe and Africa.
- Promoting multidimensional connectivity. The Initiative emphasizes the development of physical and institutional infrastructure to improve connectivity between participating countries. This effort, despite providing commercial gains, It's not just economical, but also a means of strengthening political and cultural ties, essential to the expansion of Chinese influence and soft power.
- Economic integration and international cooperation. The project describes the Initiative as a platform for shared economic development, promoting investment and cooperation in infrastructure, which is seen as a way to integrate economies from different regions more deeply into the global economic sphere led by China.
- Sustainability and green development. The strategy includes a strong sustainable and green development component, reflecting the coordination of economic and environmental objectives with the foreign policy agenda, positioning China as a leader in global sustainable development initiatives.
- Involvement and shared benefits. The initiative is described as a collaborative effort that seeks to involve multiple countries and regions, offering mutual benefits, which reinforces China's strategic objective of positioning itself as a benevolent and cooperative power on the world stage.
One can clearly see what Doshi (2021) presents as constituent aspects of a grand strategy, whatever, intentionality and coordination of actions, that are implemented by multiple means of the Chinese State, especially through political and economic means.
Although the document does not present actions implemented by military means, those directly related to State security, of course, as shown by John Mearsheimer's realist theory (2014), if China becomes an economic power, it will almost certainly transform economic gains into military gains (Mearsheimer, 2014).
In this way, It can be partially concluded that the presence of all these elements indicates that the Belt and Road Initiative is a valuable tool, part of a much broader Chinese strategy, to expand its global influence in pursuit of objectives that fall within what can be understood as a Chinese Grand Strategy.
4. The Global Security Initiative
The “Global Security Initiative” (ISG)4 was launched in February 2023. She forms, together with the Belt and Road Initiative, the Global Development Initiative and the Global Civilization Initiative, the four pillars of the Chinese proposal for a new international order, embodied in the Global Community of Shared Future.
ISG has six fundamental principles:
- Be committed to a “common” vision, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security”.
- Respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries.
- Promote the purposes and principles of the UN Charter.
- Take into account the legitimate security concerns of all countries.
- Be committed to the peaceful resolution of disputes between countries.
- Promote safety, both against traditional threats, as non-traditional (explicitly citing terrorism, climate change, cybersecurity and biosecurity).
It is interesting to note that these principles, drawn up when the conflict in Ukraine was already underway, present two items related to interests, both Chinese, as Russians and Ukrainians. By highlighting respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries, there is a clear alignment with Ukrainian interest, After all, its sovereignty was disrespected and its territory was invaded. However, citing the “legitimate security concerns of all countries”, a connection is being made with the Russian narrative that NATO expansion poses a risk to Russia's security.
To meet these principles, the Chinese propose 20 points of possible cooperation with other countries:
- Actively participate in the UN peace agenda, supporting and strengthening it in its peace missions;
- Promote cooperation and coordination between great powers, favoring stability and peaceful coexistence.
- Strengthen the understanding that “a nuclear war cannot be won”.
- Fully implement UN resolutions and conventions on nuclear weapons, chemical and biological.
- Promote the political solution of regional issues and differences between countries, highlighting respect for non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries.
- Support and enhance the ASEAN cooperation and security mechanism.
- Implement the Proposal 5 Points for peace and stability in the Middle East.
- Support the initiatives of African countries, of the African Union and sub-regional bodies in their efforts to resolve regional conflicts, combat terrorism and ensure the security of maritime communication routes.
- Support Latin American and Caribbean countries in achieving the commitments expressed in the Proclamation of Latin America and the Caribbean as a Zone of Peace.
- Pay due attention to the legitimate concerns of Pacific island countries about climate change and natural disasters.
- Strengthen dialogue and cooperation to combat illicit activities at sea, like piracy.
- Strengthen the central role of the UN in combating terrorism.
- Deepen international cooperation in the field of information security.
- Strengthen risk management in the area of biosafety.
- Strengthen international governance of Artificial Intelligence, regulating its use for military purposes.
- Strengthen international cooperation on space issues, protecting the international order in that domain in accordance with international law.
- Support the World Health Organization in its global leadership role in managing and coordinating global efforts to combat pandemics.
- Promote food and energy security in the world.
- Effectively implement the UN Convention to Combat Transnational Organized Crime.
- Support international cooperation to combat the effects of climate change and implement the Agenda 2030 UN for Sustainable Development.
Lastly, the document proposes five “engagement and cooperation platforms”.
- Work firmly in all UN bodies to establish consensus to resolve existing security issues in the world.
- Promote the role of various regional multilateral organizations – BRICS is mentioned, among other Asians – to promote regional peace and stability.
- Promote bilateral and multilateral meetings to address issues addressed by the ISG.
- Promote forums for discussing security issues, bringing together governments, think tanks and academia to discuss security issues. (the document cites the Xiangshan forum, the Chinese equivalent of the Shangri-la Dialogue).
- Encourage more exchanges between countries, to encourage cooperation and the search for solutions to security challenges. (the document talks about opening 5 thousand vacancies in China for security training).
5. Conclusion
Analysis of the three key documents of China’s Grand Strategy – “Global Community of Shared Future”, “Belt and Road Initiative” and “Global Security Initiative” – reveal an intentional and coordinated effort to shape the international order in accordance with Chinese interests and values. These documents reflect a comprehensive and ambitious vision, integrating economic dimensions, policies and security to promote China's rise as a global power.
Firstly, the “Global Community of Shared Future” presents an idealistic and cooperative vision, where China positions itself as a defender of a new international order based on equity, justice and mutual respect. The document emphasizes interdependence between nations and proposes global solutions to common challenges, promoting a more inclusive and sustainable globalization. The rhetoric used seeks to attract international support and legitimize Chinese leadership on the global stage, proposing a new model of globalization that overcomes the flaws of the current system.
The “Belt and Road Initiative” (ICR) is a practical manifestation of this vision, focused on creating infrastructure and promoting trade between China and other nations. Through massive investments and international cooperation, ICR seeks to strengthen China's economic and political connections with different regions of the world. The initiative is presented as a platform for mutual development, promoting a narrative of shared benefits and win-win cooperation. Yet, It is clear that the ICR also serves as a strategic instrument to expand Chinese influence and consolidate its economic and political power globally.
The “Global Security Initiative” (ISG) complements these strategies, addressing security issues comprehensively and proposing a model of international cooperation that favors dialogue and the peaceful resolution of conflicts. The ISG reinforces the principles of the UN Charter and promotes collective security, emphasizing the importance of confronting both traditional and non-traditional threats. Through a series of practical proposals and engagement platforms, China seeks to position itself as a stabilizing force and responsible leader in the international arena, promoting a vision of security that reflects your own interests and values.
Together, these documents demonstrate a Chinese Grand Strategy that seeks to shape the international order in ways that favor its long-term strategic objectives. Through intentional coordination of economic means, political and security, China is implementing a comprehensive strategy to increase its global influence and promote a new international order that reflects its aspirations and values. The rhetoric of cooperation and mutual benefits, although attractive, must be analyzed very critically, considering the strategic implications and underlying interests of China.
Especially for Brazil, adherence to Chinese proposals must be weighed, since the Chinese movement cannot be separated from the ongoing systemic competition between China and the USA. Brazil, the only country in the Western Hemisphere to make up the BRICS, and natural leader in South America, China already has its largest trading partner. If it moves towards greater strategic rapprochement with China, will be subject to direct and indirect and increasingly intense pressure from the US.
China's rise as a global power and its attempts to reconfigure the international order are viewed with suspicion by many nations., especially in the West. China's ability to effectively turn its vision into reality will depend on its ability to navigate these complexities and build alliances that support its initiatives.. Therefore, while the documents analyzed reveal a clear and well-articulated strategy, China's future trajectory on the international stage remains uncertain and subject to multiple variables.
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[1] 1“Zhōnghuá mínzú wěidà fùxīng” – The great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. In English, the most commonly found translation is “The great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”. In Portuguese, the translation indicated in the Chinese documents themselves uses the word “revitalization”.
[2] Available inhttps://www.mfa.gov.cn/eng/zxxx_662805/202309/t20230926_11150122.html
[3] Available inhttps://english.www.gov.cn/archive/whitepaper/202310/10/content_ WS6524b55fc6d0868f4e8e014c.html
This article was originally published on website of the Army Strategic Studies Center
Currently serves on the Ground Operations Command - RATE - in Brasília / DF.
Published articles are of personal opinion. Does not speak on behalf of the Army. The ideas expressed here are the result of his professional experience and the studies he carried out.