The intensification of the US-RPC trade dispute takes on a more reckless tone with the announcement of tariffs that the Washington government will impose on imports of products from China, not approximate value of US$ 50 billion. Beijing's retaliations are awaited…
These measures reveal, at the geoeconomic level, Americans' concern that the People's Republic is encroaching on land that they believe(commons) be yours “preserve” and that still differentiates them(va) not international level: cutting-edge technology.
Indeed, since the Chinese government launched, in 2015, on initiative “Made in China 2025”, focusing on ten high-technology sectors on which its industries will focus primarily – T.I; robotic; aerospace and marine equipment; transport; automotive; new energy sources; farm equipment; new materials; biopharma and pharmaceutical products – the yellow light came on for the Americans.
The United States, who have already lost their leadership in world trade to China, now they feel- if threatened with also losing leadership in the technological field. D.T. I meant exactly this when, to justify its decision to increase fares, and with this launch a “trade war”, stated that “…the United States can no longer tolerate losing our (your) technology and intellectual property through unfair economic practices”.
In other words, the US really fears losing its technological hegemony?…As? it's because?
The Chinese, who always plan for the long term,”divided” the world in two halves, basically: 1) the countries that will feed their still growing population, that is, Brazil and Africa (hence its investments in the energy sectors, Brazilian ports and road transport, for example), e 2) those whose technology will absorb and transmute into “Made in China”. To do this, they went around the world acquiring controlling shares in companies like Pirelli, Italian, and Volvo, swedish. Through them, and other, Chinese firms (mostly state-owned) could(to the) absorb technology that will leverage the development of local industry. Lenovo is an example of this: founded in 1984, it acquired IBM's personal computer segment, in 2005; in 2012 entered the smartphone market; and from 2014 has become the largest smartphone supplier in China. Now it strives to gain increasingly larger spaces around the world. It was in fact, as the Japanese did in the 19th and 20th centuries.
China is taking great strides to achieve the “China Dream” that Xi Jinping repeats like a mantra…
Hence D.T.'s concern.: see the US giving up what it believes with conviction to be the continuity of North American leadership in the 21st century. “trade war” we will all be victims, to a greater or lesser extent.
Is confrontation the solution?? Where does Europe stand in this context?? And where are we?…
“Exciting (?) New World”.
I suggest that friends read Claudia Trevisan's article for “EstadĂŁo):
US and China start trade war, scare markets and bring down stock markets
American government announced surcharge on 25% on imports from China equivalent to US$ 50 bi, and the Chinese government promised barriers in the same proportion
WASHINGTON – The Donald Trump administration on Friday launched the initial strike in the trade war between the world's two largest economies, by announcing the imposition of tariffs on imports from China worth US$ 50 billion. Hours later, the Chinese government announced retaliation in the same proportion, despite the US president's threat to impose additional barriers if this occurred.
The risk of a protectionist escalation brought down Stock Exchanges around the world, due to its potential negative impact on the growth of the global economy and trade. The conflict with China is the newest front in an offensive that already pits the US against its closest allies, due to tariffs on steel and aluminum. And the conflict will soon have another chapter: The Trump administration is expected to announce restrictions on Chinese investments in the US technology sector within two weeks.
Trump said the tariffs announced on Friday would be 25%, imposed mainly on goods that use âsignificantâ technologies from an industrial point of view or related to Made in China 2025 â industrial policy that drives the development of technologies that, in Chinese eyes, will be central to the economy of the future, including robotics, information Technology, electric cars and aerospace equipment. Cell phones, TVs and other consumer goods were excluded by Trump.
The US accuses China of using subsidies and state-owned companies to stimulate these sectors and of demanding technology transfer from American companies seeking to access its consumer market.. âThe United States can no longer tolerate losing our technology and intellectual property through unfair economic practicesâ, said Trump in the note in which he announced the measure, in which he accuses China of âtheftâ.
Rates will be applied in two stages. The first will affect imports worth US$ 34 billion and will come into force on the day 6 July. It is not yet defined when the barrier on the remaining US$ 16 billion will be adopted. China will retaliate in the same amounts and dates, with barriers to hundreds of products, including soybeans and automobiles.
To economist Monica de Bolle, do Peterson Institute for International Economics, said that tariffs on steel and aluminum have already caused price increases, movement that should increase after Friday's announcement. If there is inflationary pressure, it should accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes in the US, with negative impacts on Brazil. Marcos Jank, president of the Agro Asia-Brazil Alliance, fears that the confrontation will end in an agreement that is harmful to Brazilian agribusiness exports to China.
Impact. American companies and the Chinese government joined forces in criticizing Donald Trump's decision to impose tariffs on imports of US$ 50 billions in products from the Asian country. But the measure should please the president's base, five months before the crucial election that will define control of Congress and the future of his government.
âNo present moment, launching a trade war is not in the worldâs interest.â, said a statement released by China's Ministry of Commerce. âWe call on all countries to act together to firmly stop this outdated and retrograde movement.â
President of the main American business entity â the United States Chamber of Commerce â, Thomas Donohue released a statement opposing the measure. âImposing tariffs puts the cost of Chinaâs unfair trade practices squarely on the shoulders of consumers, manufacturers, American farmers and ranchers. This is not the right approach.â
Arthur Kroeber, da consultoria Gavekal, said he sees âzeroâ chance of Beijing changing the industrial policies envisaged in the Made in China program 2025 due to Trump tariffs. According to him, important sectors on both sides will be harmed, but economies as a whole will not suffer as much.
How it exports more to the American market than it imports, China has more to lose initially, observed Kroeber. But the continuation of the trade war should affect the image of the USA and reduce its international credibility in the long term..
In your assessment, the restrictions on investments in the technology sector that are expected to be imposed by Trump within two weeks will be more harmful to China than tariffs. âChinese investments in the US technology sector, in Europe and Japan are one of the elements of Beijingâs strategy to advance in the technology sectorâ, observed Kroeber.
Strategy. Monica de Bolle, do Peterson Economic Institute, also sees no possibility of the trade war forcing China to change its industrial policy. In your opinion, What the Trump administration calls technology âtheftâ is a legitimate development strategy adopted by an emerging country. âChina requires certain American companies that want to enter its market to partner with local companies and transfer technology. The company has the choice to enter or not.â
Trump used the need to protect the US technology sector as justification for the announced protectionist measure. âWe have the power of big brains in Silicon Valley, and China and others steal these secrets and we will protect these secrets. They are the crown jewels of this country.â, declared the president in an interview with the Fox News network.
But representatives of this supposedly benefited sector also criticized the imposition of barriers to imports. âTariffs are the wrong response to Chinaâs discriminatory and harmful trade practices. By imposing sanctions on consumer goods and essential components of these goods, the president will take money out of Americans' pockets unnecessarily, harming the people he hopes to help, not punishing Chinaâ, declarou Dean Garfield, presidente do Information Techology Industry Council, which brings together large companies in the sector, including Amazon, Apple e Google.
With a production chain that extends from the United States to China and covers other Asian countries, Apple was one of the companies that spoke out most openly against tariffs in the period before Trump's announcement. The company president, Tim Cook, met with the president at the White House in April, and said he had raised the issue of protectionism.
âI talked about trade and the importance of trade and how I believe two countries trading between them makes the pie bigger.â, Cook said the following month in an interview with Bloomberg Television. âI felt tariffs were not the right approach. I showed him (Trump) some analytical things that demonstrated why.â
Judging by the decision, Cook wasn't convincing enough. At the end, Trump was true to his campaign rhetoric and his promise to confront China when he reached the White House.
Brazil. Brazil has no gain from the trade war between the United States and China and runs the risk of paying part of the bill if the world's two largest economies reach an agreement to increase American exports to the Asian country, evaluated Marcos Jank, president of the Agro Asia-Brazil Alliance, entity created last year to promote the image of Brazilian agribusiness in Asia.
Jank believes that Washington and Beijing are measuring up with the announcement of tariffs and retaliations. In your opinion, the two sides will eventually reach an understanding, which will involve increased Chinese purchases of US agro-industrial products, to the detriment of direct competitors, like Brazil.
Movement in this direction has already begun to occur, highlighted, with the imposition of anti-dumping measures by China against the import of Brazilian chicken, last week. The national product had gained ground in the Asian country after the suspension of chicken shipments from the USA, in 2010, and the adoption of anti-dumping measures in 2015, recalled Jank.. According to him, by imposing the barrier to Brazil, China opens space to expand purchases of chicken from the USA. âTrumpâs strategy is to tighten to force a negotiation. My fear is what could come out of this negotiationâ, said Jank in a telephone interview from Australia.
The executive recalled that Brazil is the USA's main competitor in several agribusiness segments, among which mentioned soy, beef, chicken and orange juice. âIf there is a big hit, This will have an impact on several sectors, but for Brazilian agribusiness it could be very badâ, noted Jank., who lives in Singapore. âBrazil is the third largest agricultural exporter in the world and is a strong competitor of the United States.â
The attempt to placate Trump with possible concessions in the sector goes beyond China, these junk. In April, Japan relaxed emission requirements for ethanol-based fuel, which benefited American producers to the detriment of Brazilians.
The scenario of a prolonged trade war between the world's two largest economies will also be bad for Brazil, as it would reduce the global growth rate of the economy and trade, evaluated. âWhen elephants fight, who catches it is the grass. We are the grass in this story.â
Originally posted on https://economia.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,usa-and-china-start-trade-war-scares-markets-and-brings-down-stocks,70002352226
