Authors Isabela Paez Thus e Natalia Yuri Kitayama
After economic stagnation due to the first wave of Coronavirus in Europe, the European economy resumed its growth slowly. Between July and September, the GDP of the countries of the European Union grew 12,1%. However, possible restrictions with the second wave of the virus predict a new recession.
According to a forecast made in November by the European Commission, eurozone GDP will decline by 7,8% this year and the recovery in 2021 will be slow, with growth of 4,2%, which demonstrates a decrease in 1,9% compared to the July estimate.
These figures are the result of the new restrictive measures adopted by Europeans. The Germany, the largest economy in the European Union, imposed a lockdown that closed bars, restaurants, cinemas, theaters and academies, while France banned the operation of non-essential services, except for schools and factories. These precautions negatively affect commerce in general. An example is stores, which will be closed at the end of the year, period when they sell the most due to commemorative dates. Yet, people didn't stop buying at that time, they are purchasing products from online stores. That is, the small retail market was taken over by large companies, like Amazon, who work with e-commerce.
Those most affected by the recession were young people. This because, generally, This age group works in sales, tourism and hospitality, sectors compromised by the new restrictions. According to Eurostat, the number of unemployed people under 25 years it grew again in 2020, after years of decline.
The European Commission stated that the measures against the disease had four times more impact on the economy than the 2008, even though these effects are different for each country, as well as recovery. Thereby, the European executive's projection indicates that the euro zone's public debt will be 101,7% do PIB, number that will remain high in, at least, two years, when there are signs that the European economy will return to normal.
Bibliographic references
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