On the last day 14 of June, the heads of government of 30 Allied countries that make up NATO met in Brussels. Reading the statement(1) provides a good understanding of how the most powerful military alliance in history views the current global situation., what threats they identify and what paths they will chart in defense matters, always keeping in view the three fundamental tasks of the Alliance: provide collective security, manage crises and strengthen security cooperation.
Allies identify threats from all strategic directions, represented by the systemic competition of "authoritarian and assertive" powers; terrorism; state and non-state actors acting to undermine international order, the rule of law and democracy; political and social instabilities beyond the borders of NATO countries that cause illegal immigration and human trafficking; rise in cyber threats, hybrid and asymmetric, which include disinformation campaigns; increasing threats in the space domain; proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and erosion of the international legal architecture designed to control them; beyond the threats posed by climate change.
To face this situation and threats, the Alliance adopted the so-called NATO 2030 – Transatlantic Agenda for the Future. The document lists a series of measures, among which I highlight below the ones I consider most relevant.
– Strengthen NATO as an instrument of collective security for the Euro-Atlantic region, against all threats, coming from all directions. Reaffirms the commitment to maintain an appropriate mix of nuclear and conventional weapons for deterrence and defense.
– Adopt measures to accelerate cooperation between allied States for the development of new technologies in the defense area.
– Strengthen NATO's ability to preserve the current international order in aspects that affect the collective security of Alliance countries. This includes strengthening dialogue and cooperation with non-allied countries in Europe itself., Asia, Africa and Latin America.
– Transform NATO into an international organization that leads the way in understanding the security impacts of climate change. This includes efforts for the armed forces of allied countries to strike a balance in the carbon emissions that result from military activities until 2050.
– Provide the Alliance with the necessary resources, through the defense budgets of member countries and the NATO common fund, to finance the ambitious goals proposed.
Russia is mentioned by name 62 times in the Brussels declaration. IT'S, no doubt, the biggest threat identified by NATO. The report claims that the Russians continue to violate the principles, the trust and commitments provided for in the documents that underpin relations between the country and NATO. Virtually all civil and military cooperation between NATO and Russia remains suspended.. The allies reaffirm that they will maintain what they consider to be a response to the deterioration of the security environment by increasing their deterrent power and their “defensive posture”, including the military presence on the Alliance's eastern borders.
Russians are accused of increasing development of military capabilities in multiple domains, to promote provocative military activities, as unannounced, large-scale military exercises, even near the borders of allied countries, to increase its military might stationed in the Crimea, installation of modern missile systems in Kaliningrad, increased military integration with Belarus and repeated violations of NATO airspace.
Russia is also accused of promoting Hybrid War actions such as attempts to interfere in electoral processes of Alliance countries., intimidate and exert political and economic pressure, launch disinformation campaigns, Cyberwar, in addition to acting with its secret services in illegal activities in NATO countries.
NATO accuses Russia of diversifying its nuclear arsenal, including deploying short- and medium-range missile systems in order to threaten the alliance and illegally occupy Crimea, acting directly against the sovereignty of Ukraine. Actions against Georgia and Moldova are also condemned.
After dedicating himself to the threat posed by Russia, the document goes on to analyze the other challenges to NATO's security.
Terrorism remains listed as a direct threat to the security of populations, and while the document recognizes that internal security is the responsibility of each country, NATO is attentive and will always contribute to facing this threat. The document cites the work in Afghanistan and Iraq, saying that, despite withdrawing its troops from Afghanistan, will remain committed to fighting international terrorism.
NATO affirms its support for a complete, irreversible and verifiable denuclearization of North Korea and its commitment not to allow Iran to possess nuclear weapons. It states that it supports the resumption of negotiations for the JCPoA – the nuclear agreement with Iran – to be resumed so that nuclear activities in that country have exclusively peaceful purposes.
The conflict in Syria, entering its 11th year, is also listed as a source of instability in the region and of insecurity for the Alliance's southern border, who will not hesitate to act militarily to preserve security against threats from that region.
Political instability in Belarus also causes concern, and the action that forced the landing of a civil aircraft that was flying over the country, with the arrest of an opponent of the regime who was on board, was classified as unacceptable.
“Assertive behavior” and Chinese ambitions are presented as threats to the international order. Its modernization and expansion of the nuclear arsenal, the so-called “civil-military fusion strategy”, growing military cooperation with Russia, including participation in joint military exercises in the Euro-Atlantic area, its lack of transparency and use of disinformation campaigns, are identified as causes of concern..
Climate change is pointed out as the shaping challenges of current times. Mean threats with multiple impacts, both in the Euro-Atlantic area, as in the vicinity of the Alliance. NATO is committed to regularly assessing the impacts of climate change on the strategic environment and on its operations..
The so-called “open-door policy”, which allows new European countries to join the Alliance, is reinforced. The document states that this is an issue that concerns only the country that wants to join the Alliance and NATO itself., not of interest to third countries. This is a clear message to Russia, which is against the entry of Eastern European countries, in particular Ukraine and Georgia, na OTAN.
To face the challenges listed above, in addition to others contained in the document, NATO outlines a series of measures to strengthen its deterrent capacity, including measures to modernize its nuclear arsenal, including through its missile capabilities.
The Brussels statement makes it clear that NATO is concerned about changes in the global balance of power.. Russia is identified as the biggest threat to the Alliance, more to China, Iran and terrorism, beyond climate change, are also presented as challenges to global security and stability.
The Euro-Atlantic Alliance reacts to what it sees as a defiant stance by Russians and Chinese, who in turn claim to be preparing for threats to their security from NATO. It's the old Security Dilemma, in which the perception of the external threat provokes a greater investment in security and defense, which in turn awakens the same feeling on the other side, in an escalation that ends up affecting both sides of the dispute.
The conclusion, evident, is that there are many points of friction and confrontation, all potential crisis-causers, that must be handled skillfully by all those involved., for peacekeeping.
(1) Read the statement athttps://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_185000.htm
Currently serves on the Ground Operations Command - RATE - in Brasília / DF.
Published articles are of personal opinion. Does not speak on behalf of the Army. The ideas expressed here are the result of his professional experience and the studies he carried out.