The memory in politics is short, because politics is the art of passion, and the passions are ephemeral. Given the complexity of contemporary societies, citizens don't have time, competence or even desire to engage in all discussions that go through politics, and the result of this is that we want to find politicians who present us with a world view that we understand and like, simplifying all complexity and making us believe that the world is simple.
In 2018, then candidate Jair Bolsonaro was able to fall in love 57,8 millions of Brazilian voters. A small portion of these voters knew Bolsonaro's diffuse proposals, a large majority saw in the retired captain a chance to no longer have the PT in the government. As much as it was an anti-something vote, Bolsonaro managed to fall in love with these voters, now hopeful of a new phase for Brazil, where things would be different, they would be as each imagined.
The big question is that Bolsonaro did not have a project, besides being the anti-PT. Not for less, spent the first part of his term accusing the PT of Brazil's ills. He spent precious time on it not realizing that his voters started to lose their passion. This did not happen because Bolsonaro changed positions, but because each of its voters was realizing that just being anti-PT was not enough, that a plan was needed, a project. And each voter found himself alone, with his idea of how Bolsonaro had fallen in love. Today, each realizes that Bolsonaro's votes did not mean a single voice, a unique passion.
Bolsonaro and his team even tried to make up for lost time, but they were also unable to find a unique project. The different nuances of speeches do not add up, more than one axis, approaches a star, with tips for all sides. At one end there is the religious-conservative discourse, so well vocalized by the no longer prominent Minister of Women, Family and Human Rights, Damares Alves. At the other end there is the modernizing pseudo-discourse of the Minister of the Environment, Ricardo Salles. In a third point is the Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, with a hoarse liberal proposal that has no concrete backing from the president or real space for advancement within Congress. You can, still see Minister Marcos Pontes, of Science, Technology and Innovation sighing with apparitions with out-of-context ideas and detached from any more organic government effort. The list could follow, with low points (with expressionless ministers) or tall (with special emphasis on the serious military who are trying to save the government).
The exchange of 6 ministries, in the wake of Chancellor Ernesto Araújo's maintenance infeasibility, it only came to crown the difficulty that the president has in creating a narrative that is capable of falling in love again with an important portion of Brazilian citizens. Bolsonaro clings to a few bravadoes and, more than anything, to the goal of showing that he is the president, therefore, who's boss. But, in politics everything is passion, I don't send. As Nelson Mandela says in his autobiography, “In politics, circumstances make the facts ”.
Today we can see more clearly that the Bolsonaro government never started. The most radical speeches keep bolsonaristas equally radical seeking the promotion of the president, more with the use of violence and threat than with argument and facts. The others, abandoned the president and politics, waiting for a new passion to appear. No more, Bolsonaro will remain closed in his small world, showing you are the boss. It will send more and more, in less. Your closest circles start to crumble, the supporters of yesteryear leave, very slowly so as not to attract attention. It is not just a matter of looking at the continuous exchange of ministers, but also for the second echelon, where the decisions that shape the state are effectively made and implemented.
I tend to think that soon Bolsonaro will become so toxic to politicians - eternal seekers of passions and their consequent votes -, that will move further away, leaving a closed president in his palace. Impeachment seems to me the most likely, especially if the president responds to this political crisis that lives with more self-assertion. On the other hand, if Bolsonaro effectively decides to give in to the so-called Centrão, as a way to stay ahead of the presidency, will be swallowed even more quickly. Centrão is insatiable for resources, and there is nothing that Bolsonaro does to be able to attend to everything.
Bolsonaro fell in love with 2018, but your government does not. There was never a state project (or even government) and the president was not able to turn that initial passion into a project. Like this, Bolsonaro is the president, but don't preside. His government did not actually start in office, and now it shows that it's over. Maybe I will remain president until the end of next year, but it will continue without the capacity to build a project. Many generations from now, what will be said about this period is that we had a president who was unable to deal with a crisis and propose a national project..
