President Jair Bolsonaro will be the guest of honor of the Indian government at the “Republic Day” / “Republic Day” celebrations, next day 26, date when India celebrates the entry into force of its Constitution, that came to replace the status of "Domain" of the British Raj, Finishing, like this, its traumatic decolonization process. Along with the day 15 of August, date of independence, these are the two biggest political events celebrated in the country (the nuns aside… there are many…). The invitation was made when the Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi, participated in the BRICS meeting in Brasilia.
Being the guest of honor for what is one of the biggest public festivities in the country – and a “feast” for the eyes (I watched several…) – It is an honor that the Indian government bestows on few. And it has an explicit message: confirms a special interest in prioritizing the bilateral relationship. Not many world leaders have been honored with such a gesture in recent times.. The invitation is very selective, e “targeted”. Only the Prime Minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe (2014); President Barack Obama (2015); or President Francis Holland (2016); the Crown Prince of the United Arab Emirates, Zayed Al Nahyan (2017); ten leaders of Southeast Asian countries (2018); and the President of South Africa, Cyril Ramaphosa (2019), preceded Bolsonaro. It fits, still, remember that two other Brazilian presidents – Fernando Henrique Cardoso placeholder image, in 1996, and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, in 2004 – were equally honored with this nod. Still in this regard, not many countries received three, or more, similar invitations.
The history of the bilateral relationship, since India's independence, in 1947, it has been, about everything, of disagreements..In colonial times, the Portuguese were responsible for “building a bridge” between their colonies in Brazil and Goa. So much so that some of our main products were taken and brought by them. Example: mangoes did not exist in Brazil, just like cashew in India, until the Portuguese transplanted them. Today this country is the second largest exporter of cashew nuts in the world… Brazilian zebu cattle have their original origin in India, as indicated by the names of some breeds: Guzerat (Gujarat) and Nellore.
In the last century, Brazil was one of the first countries to recognize independent India, in 1948, moment when diplomatic missions were established in both countries. Formally we are partners from then on…
But are we?
Let's look at the shared history. Relationships were distant, even physically, at a time when distances counted a lot. But it wasn't just the distance that separated us, but also the “Goa” factor, colony to which the Portuguese Salazarists clung “tooth and nail”, until in 1961 The Indian Army invaded and annexed the Indian Union, together with the other Portuguese possessions of Daman and Diu (in 1987). The “special” relationship between Brazil and our former metropolis led us to reject the incorporation of Goa, which raised severe criticism from Indians: How could a former colony collude with the colonizer??…
Indira Ghandi, First Minister, decided to “break the ice”, and paid a visit to Brazil, in 1968. He stayed here for four days and signed an agreement to encourage inter-university cooperation and agreed on the basis of an agreement for the peaceful use of nuclear energy (let us remember that in 1974, the Indians launched their first atomic device…).
After this…absolute silence… Brazil was entering its military period and non-aligned and theoretically socialist India did not agree with the predominant ideology in Brazil.
only in 1985, When I was serving at our Embassy in New Delhi, the then Minister of Foreign Affairs visited, Ramiro Saraiva Guerreiro, accompanied by a huge delegation. Evidently, Indians noted the imbalance between a Prime Minister's visit and the reciprocity of a “mere” Chancellor…Little happened… There was also an abortive attempt for then President José Sarney to go, next year, which once again frustrated the expectations of Indians…
But times have changed, and increasingly the parameters of the economy on both sides brought them closer: primarily due to the efforts of both to maintain the market reserve/import substitution policy and, posteriorly, in the almost concomitant abandonment of both of this model, from 1989, in search of greater insertion in the globalization process that was consolidating. Common features: geographic extent, market size (even if unbalanced); protagonism in the respective regions, coinciding social challenges, I look forward to greater participation in international organizations, etc. – brought the two diplomacies closer.
President Fernando Henrique Cardoso took the lead in the effort for rapprochement by participating in “Republic Day”, in 1996. It was the first time that a Brazilian president visited India ! The discussions included cooperation in the areas of nuclear energy, biotechnology and information technology.
As coincidences brought them closer, the emergence of the BRICs (still without South Africa, that moment) at the Ekaterinburg Summit, in June 2009, brought additional ambitions to the agendas – shared – from both. Much remains to be done to transform the vaunted intentions into facts and concrete results, but the fact is that the BRICS (this time with South Africa) could be an important leader – otherwise fundamental – in geoeconomics/geopolitics of the 21st century, if you can/know how to join forces.
It is in this context that the presidential visit to New Delhi takes place. Aside from the diplomatic aspects themselves,, including the approximately ten agreements to be signed, the voluminous and important mission that accompanies Bolsonaro demonstrates that the trip will also have a strong – if not main – commercial focus.
The most important objective, for me, is to circumvent the perception that was consolidated at the beginning of the current government that Brazil looked only at the North Atlantic, frustrating the universalist agenda that has always characterized Brazilian diplomacy. In contacts I have had with Asian diplomats and businesspeople, Indians included, this was evident. After the visit to China and Japan, However, it was possible to notice a noticeable inflection towards the East. Missing, obviously, the Indians.
What would we be leaving aside if we jettisoned ourselves??Let’s look at some objective data, among so many:
1) India was the fastest growing country last year (7,1%, against 5,9% to China);
2) the population of India, around 1,3 billion inhabitants, young people in the majority (65% below the range 35 years), has a consumer market of around 350 millons of citizens (almost a Brazil and ½). This in itself would justify any “business audacity”;
3) bilateral trade (US$ 7 billion) is still much lower than the possibilities, and the product range concentrated in just a few items. That is, There is great room for expansion;
4) India is one of the world's largest centers in the area of information technology, essential component of the globalized economy;
5) There are enormous prospects for cooperation in the agricultural sector, including consolidating several partnerships in this field of research;
6) India would be an alternative to our growing dependence on China (and perhaps from the United States, especially in the area of research…);
7) as important, There is a lot to learn from the history and culture of India..
At least three negotiations are, to what is known, forwarded, and must be announced during the trip: 1) an investment cooperation and facilitation agreement; 2) a pension agreement, which will allow companies to collect social security in a single payment, and accounting for the period of work for expatriate employees for retirement purposes. The third negotiation is an agreement to put an end to double taxation between the two countries. The agricultural sector should, to what is known, be privileged, especially in the area of ethanol technology, that India intends to add to fuel for motor vehicles.
"Games are made", therefore. Let's see if players will understand the scale of what's on the table…I hope they don't shuffle the cards too much and lose., once again, the meaning of what is at stake!
I recommend that friends read the article below from Jornal de Brasilia:
Bolsonaro's trip to India should yield immediate results – JBr.
