The sudden resignation, allegedly for health reasons, of Shinzo Abe as Prime Minister of Japan, in day 28 last august, before the end of his term, ends a long period in which the country sought to reposition itself in the East Asia region and rediscover its protagonism throughout much of the second half of the last century until the meteoric rise of neighboring China posed practically unreachable challenges for the Japanese government and society, finally snatching from the country the second place among the largest economies on the planet.
Abe-san's personal history is confused with that of post-war Japan. He is the heir to a long and influential line of politicians. Your maternal grandfather, Nobusuke Kish, became known for the brutal way he ruled the Japanese puppet state of Manchukuo, in northeast China. World War II ends, Kishi was held for three years as a war crimes suspect. However, the Tokyo court, who tried and ordered the execution of criminals, did not formally condemn him, this by inspiration of the US government, who saw in him the political capacity to consolidate the Japanese conservative camp against the perceived threats of the Socialist Party of Japan, in the decade 1950. your paternal grandfather, Kan Abe, and your father, Shintaro Abe, who held the post of Minister of Foreign Affairs between 1982 e 1986, were also eminent politicians.
As the most internationally recognized conservative Japanese statesman, his departure creates a void in Japan's political landscape. After all, it was seven years and eight months in the exercise of this second term; Abe had previously held the same position, in 2006, who left a year after, involved in a string of scandals. He is credited with the fact that it was the longest stay of a Prime Minister in the post in the entire history of Japan.. And also that of having managed to become the most popular âPremierâ in the country until recently, when he saw his image fade in the face of criticism he suffered for the way he dealt with the Covid-19 pandemic, even if in general terms Japan felt its effects relatively less, both in terms of health and safeguarding the economy, compared to many other countries. However, its approval ratings have reached historic lows, what, according to analysts, would practically preclude a possible re-election. For them, the way in which his departure took place reflects an old principle of political life: for a long-lived leader who knows the end of his career is near, better to define your own terms of departure than to be defenestrated by rivals. However, your health problems are real.
As he left, Abe apologized to the nation for not being able to bring back the Japanese who are still held captive in North Korea., some of them for more than 40 years; for not resolving territorial issues with China and Russia; for not having managed to change the âPacifist Constitutionâ and increase military spending – a controversial proposal -; and for not being ahead of Japan in the – still uncertain – Olympic Games, in the summer of next year.
What will Shinzo Abe's political heritage be??
Although leaving with an economy still weakened, he made Japan stronger and more autonomous in matters of defense and foreign policy, and whoever succeeds him will likely continue on this trail, which is good news for advocates of peace in east asia and the general rules-based international order.
On the eastern flank of the Continent, two major themes dominated its agenda: the nuclear threat from North Korea and the increasing assertiveness of the People's Republic of China in the region, and all over the planet. in the first case, against missile tests promoted by Pyongyang that intermittently cross Japanese territory, Abe was faced with the dilemma that has persisted over Japan since in 1947 the country was forced to subscribe to the so-called âPacifist Constitutionâ, drafted and enforced by the victors allied, with the United States at the forefront, by which, in its article 9, the japanese people (sic) pledges to renounce eternally (sic) to war. Now, this certainly made sense in the immediate post-war period., with the country torn apart and terrorized by the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. However, in 2020, with the belligerent activism of the immediate neighborhood, mainly North Koreans, it makes sense to circumscribe the role of the âSelf-Defense Forcesâ (the title is indicative) to only defend the territory in case of aggression? Dilemma…
Nor should we forget that Japan's view of its neighbors has never been particularly friendly.. Chinese and Koreans insist on not forgetting the atrocities committed by the Japanese during the Pacific War, especially with regard to women kidnapped and transformed into âcomfort womenâ for their troops. This is to this day a wound that has not healed, despite the many apologies – and the consequent financial reparations – offered by the Tokyo government. The ceremonies that take place in Japan on the date of the country's defeat in World War II, in day 15 of August, are the scene of violent demonstrations, both in China and Korea.
It is against this backdrop that while in office Shinzo Abe encouraged the discussion on whether Japan should develop its ability to attack missile launch sites in enemy territory in the event that an attack proved imminent., This debate is linked to North Korea's growing nuclear threat. Left office unsuccessfully; the trauma of the bombs still lingers in the memory of the population, especially the oldest. Defending the cause of the safety of Japanese citizens was always a concern throughout his administration., contributing to its aggressive stance towards the isolated Pyongyang regime. It was for these reasons that Abe-san insisted on preserving and nurturing the privileged relationship with the United States., what, as you remember, at the end of World War II they signed, in 1951, an agreement with Japan in which they committed themselves to maintaining the security and safety of the country. It is not for less that the Japanese Premier claims(va) being âDonald Trumpâs best friendâ, aligning as much as possible your country's foreign policy in international forums with that of the Americans, despite severe internal criticism and opposition from the Okinawan population, for example, the presence of American naval troops stationed on the island.
The other vector of concern for the now former Prime Minister was the growing role of the People's Republic of China, âannoying neighborâ. until mid years 90 the Chinese were focused on deconstructing Maoist communism and moving towards the âsocialist market economyâ advocated by Deng Xiaoping and its opening to the world. concreted, somehow, this stage â and after becoming the main trading partner for most countries – The irradiation of political and economic factors throughout Eurasia makes the relationship between the countries of the region much closer and intertwined., assertive and supported by the âChina Dreamâ and the âMade in China 2025â project, Chinese President's âApple of the Eyesâ, turns now to consolidate the techno-economic hegemony of the planet until the end of this century, according to calculation â and ambition – of the Chinese. By the way, in this eagerness, Beijing accepts the challenge of Washington's "rallying cry" and sets out to fight for the leadership of the post-5G economy, that will give the victor the supremacy (isolated, or shared) of the planet.
The veiled dispute between the two Asian giants goes beyond territorial issues and invades the East China Sea., where both, together with Taiwan, dispute sovereignty over uninhabited islets, what the japanese call senkaku, the mainland chinese, de Diaoyu, and the Taiwanese, de Tiaoyutai. The aggressiveness of the People's Republic in this dispute reveals to many that, at the bottom, what is at stake is, as a matter of fact, the freedom of maritime trade from the countries of the region towards the West through the Indian Ocean rather than the much vaunted mineral wealth that lies underground..
Abe also tried to revive the economy that had been struggling since the collapse of the âAsian bubbleâ, in 1991, triggered a long period of stagnation, what analysts call âthe lost decadeâ. your policy, labeled âAbenomicsâ, which consisted of three major vectors to leverage growth, what economists call the âthree arrowsâ – stimulus to consumption, Monetary decompression and structural reforms – although not extremely successful, managed to overcome the recession that dominated the country for a long time and lead it to a growth rate that, last year proved to be positive, although very modest. The Covid-19 pandemic threatens, however, destroy all the effort made, but it is still too early to calculate the âdamageâ, what is, by the way, shared by most countries.
In the face of all these multiple challenges, to post-Abe Japan, increasingly elderly and âunpopulatedâ, will fit, At my point of view, seek comparative advantages in the areas that dominates over all other competitors, mainly Chinese and South Koreans. I think of the automotive sectors, of electronics, optical instruments and robotics, that are your "strong point". I am convinced that the world of the future will be one of shared comparative advantages.
Big challenges…at the height of a great country. My stay for more than three years serving at our Embassy in Tokyo convinced me of this…
I suggest friends to read the article âThe Japan Shinzo Abe Has Left Behindâ from “site” Project Syndicate em PROJECT-SYNDICATE.ORGThe Japan Shinzo Abe Has Left Behind | by Bill Emmott – Project Syndicate
Also read part II of this article at “Japan after Shinzo Abe (II)“
