Por Gabriela Lombardi and Thomas Corsaro
Since the last presidential election in France, in 2017, election polls indicated, in its entirety, that the vote of 2022 it would be hotly disputed again, as well as in 2017, between Emmanuel Macron do partido La République En Marche (the Republic on the march) and Marine Le Pen, of the far-right party Rassemblement National (National Meeting). However,, with the rise of a new candidate within six months of the election, expectations can be reversed.
this new candidate, Eric Zemmour, is a french journalist, also far right, newbie in politics. Zemmour's possible candidacy has been shuffling the electoral dispute for the next presidency. Known for several controversies, such as being accused of delivering hate speeches in several of his French TV appearances and of being a denial of World War II Jewish Holocaust, the candidate continues to rise rapidly in opinion polls, weakening Marie le Pen's candidacy. Given the above, it becomes clear a certain concern on the part of Macron and his party about the consequences that could occur over the next few months.
Zemmour's ambition is to usurp the extreme right-wing position in the field of the French electoral presidency, currently occupied by Marie Le Pen. The journalist claims to represent the “true” conservative right and says that Le Pen has become “too moderate” throughout his political career., in the face of attempts by the RN candidate to attract more votes. He considers that the growing immigration of refugees and foreign non-refugees, especially those from Islamic countries, will destroy France through the "replacement" of its white European population and predicts that racial conflicts will escalate until a "Race War" ensues., expounding these ideas in his latest book.: The France Didn't Say His Last Word (France Hasn't Said Its Last Word). In addition, he claims that ethnic minorities have “took over” several neighborhoods in France and that the traditional values of heterosexual white women and men are under threat from “Gay Ideology ".
The candidate said he admired "certain aspects" of Donald Trump's governments and the Brexit agreement, mainly on matters related to immigration. Zemmour says he wants to create a political bloc that would connect the center-right with more extremist groups, which would win the most votes, both the lower class and the class he calls the “patriotic bourgeoisie”.
As per the latest Harris Interactive polling predictions for Challenges magazine, Zemmour would reach the second round with 17% of votes, leaving Le Pen behind for the first time, with 15%, and Macron keeping the lead with 24%. In less than a month, Zemmour doubled its poll results, passing from 7% a 17% of voting intentions. In another search, is at the Ifop institute, Bertrand from the republican right, and Le Pen are tied with 16%, while Zemmour registers 14%. Although with less voting intentions than direct rivals and still within the margin of error, the journalist continues his ascent, with two percentage points more than in the previous survey, while Le Pen loses two points. Based on your radical positioning, French voter groups attracted to Zemmour are not dissimilar to American voter groups attracted to Donald Trump in 2016, conservative and reactionary groups, generally more present in rural areas of the country, in addition to those disillusioned by the current political system who do not tend to vote because they do not feel represented by any candidate. among these, Jean-Marie Le Pen stands out himself, founder of the National Front, declared that he will vote for the “polemist” if he has more chances than his daughter in the electoral contest.
However, it is not certain that Zemmour will be able to apply, something that hasn't even officially announced yet, besides the fact that you need to get 500 signatures of the country's politicians, usually mayors, to submit an official application. However,, it's still a concern, as changes in the presidential election landscape could pose a problem for Macron, who would have his presence assured in the second round, according to all surveys. Yet, can be an advantage for LREM, in case Zemmour's candidacy splits the left vote between him and Le Pen.
In this sense, focusing on re-election, Macron announced on the day 12 October 2021, an investment plan of 30 billions of euros to stimulate the industry in France up to 2030, having massive investments in sectors like nuclear energy, clean hydrogen and agriculture, in addition to biomedicines and space race. The goal is to reposition the country as a leader in innovation and cutting-edge technology and, simultaneously, fight climate change. The ambition of the package “France 2030” is to decarbonize the French economy, betting on reindustrialization with lower carbon dioxide emissions. Driven by economic recovery after Covid-19, the current president launches a task to face his rivals and try to remain at the Élysée Palace until 2027.
References:
BASSETS, Marc. eyeing the re-election, Macron Announces Blueprint of 30 billions of euros to revitalize industry in France. Or Balloon, 13 October 2021. Available in: https://oglobo.globo.com/mundo/de-olho-na-reeleicao-macron-anuncia-plano-de-30-bilhoes-de-euros-para-revitalizar-industria-na-franca-25234653. Access in: 14/10/2021.
CHRISAFIS, Angelique. French far right’s new face: the meteoric rise of Éric Zemmour. The Guardian International, 8 October 2021. Available in: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/08/same-old-french-far-right-the-meteoric-rise-of-eric-zemmour. Access in: 14/10/2021.
Seeking re-election, Macron launches plan of 30 billions of euros to decarbonise French economy. UOL International, 12 October 2021. Available in: https://noticias.uol.com.br/ultimas-noticias/rfi/2021/10/12/em-busca-de-reeleicao-macron-lanca-plano-de–30-billions-to-decarbonise-french-economy.htm. Access in: 14/10/2021.
FERNANDES, Daniela. Right-wing journalist takes meteoric rise in polls and threatens Macron's re-election in France. BBC News Brazil, 12 October 2021. Available in: https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/internacional-58878881. Access in: 14/10/2021.
