Analyzing the Venezuelan crisis today is difficult because we ended up in political-ideological discussions. More than understanding what is happening in the country, inevitably the discussions revolve around the support or criticism of the president (?) Nicolas Maduro. But the question is deeper and a definitive answer does not come easy.
It is certain that the Brazilian media, as well as the government of Brazil, clearly advocate Maduro's immediate departure to assume, in your place, or opponent Juan Guaidó. Apparently the question would be simple: Mature sai, Guaidó assumes power, restores order in Venezuela and everything goes back to normal.
However, when we look at other nearby examples, we see that it is much more complicated than this. Think of Iraq when President Bush decided to invade. The plan was great too, would leave saddam hussein, a democratic government would be installed in the country and everything would be calm.. We could recover other examples like Syria or Lebanon and we would have the same result: more than establishing domestic order, a chaos was created that continues to this day.. Let's not forget that the United States still has soldiers in Iraq so far.. for those who don't remember, the invasion of iraq took place in 2003, that is, 15 years ago!
The problem with Venezuela is not supporting Maduro or Guaidó, is not having a plan for later. The number of countries that are recognizing Guaidó as the president of Venezuela is growing, and this gives the impression that we are getting closer to the solution. On the contrary, we are approaching the beginning of a much bigger and more dangerous journey..
The Venezuelan state is weakening and society is radicalizing. The economic crisis is big in the country and this cannot be denied, but neither can one be naive to believe that the simple change of a president will lead to the stabilization of the economy., to the pacification of society and the restructuring of the State.
So far, what is seen of the international community is a lot of bravado and the attempt to resolve the change of presidents by threats or unilateral recognition. The problem is that the discussion about the next day is missing.. What is the plan of the international society? of the countries that have already declared the recognition of Guaidó?
If Venezuelan society does break down, we t have a civil war, what will we do? we will start bombing in Caracas? we will send the UN Blue Helmets to enforce peace? which group will be attacked and which defended?
The world of international relations has long known that intervening in domestic affairs is a dangerous undertaking., but we seem to forget about it. And now we are entering a more righteous phase, in which we choose a side, we consider it right, and we put the other side as totally wrong. We seem to forget the lessons of the past (and Brazil's foreign policy too).
It is noteworthy that I am not here defending the Maduro government, but rather pondering the deeper issues that we can see in this case. If the international society is really concerned about peace in Venezuela, should be pressed for a more constructive agenda, what do you consider:
- The way out of this crisis is necessary and only through calls for new elections.
- Negotiations between the parties (Maduro government and Guaidó government) must be mediated by other countries, capable of both offering guarantees and conditions for both sides.
- Regardless of which side is on, international society must force protective conditions on the losing side, not forcing both sides to take their positions to the extreme.
Or do we look at the case of Venezuela with the necessary coolness and detachment, or they must be ready to hold us accountable for the potential civil bloodshed that might occur there..
POST WRITING
This article was written on the day 12/02/2019 and highlighted the possibility of escalation in violence. Today, day 22/2/2019 at least two people died on the border between Brazil and Venezuela as a result of clashes between President Nicolás Maduro's security forces and indigenous communities who demanded the entry of aid sent by Brazil. as already said, it is not just an internal crisis that would be resolved by a simple change of presidents., but of a more complex structural issue.
