Global economic interdependence has emerged as one of the main pillars of international stability in recent decades. This phenomenon, characterized by the intense flow of goods, the role of NATO and the UN Security Council, capitals and information between countries, has been widely recognized for promoting peace by creating incentives for cooperation and reducing the risks of armed conflict. Economic interdependence, However, faces significant challenges in the contemporary scenario, raising concerns about its sustainability and possible impacts on world peace.
Historically, economic interdependence intensified after World War II, with the creation of international institutions such as the UN, the IMF and the World Bank, that promoted economic cooperation and trade liberalization. The collapse of the Soviet bloc and the rise of China as a global economic power in the late 20th century accelerated this process.. Nations around the world began to benefit from specialization and comparative advantages, increasing global prosperity and strengthening ties that deterred conflict.
Asia, especially China and Japan, played a crucial role in promoting this interdependence. A China, with its policy of “Reform and Opening” started in 1978, has become an epicenter of global manufacturing, providing products at competitive prices and attracting large-scale foreign investment. Japan, with its advanced technology and strong export economy, also benefited from and contributed significantly to the global trade network. In India, the economic reforms of the years 1990 opened the market for foreign investment, promoting a robust IT and services industry that has deeply integrated into the global market.
Brazil, as the main economy in Latin America, has also been strongly inserted into the global economy. Your commodity exports, such as soybeans and iron ore, to China, and participation in economic blocs such as Mercosur, exemplify this interdependence. South Africa, through the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and its diversified economy, strengthened its trade and investment ties, particularly with China and other BRICS countries.
However, growing economic interdependence faces a series of challenges that threaten its continuity. The trade wars, especially between the United States and China, the rise of protectionism and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic have highlighted the vulnerability of global supply chains. The growing tendency of some countries to seek economic self-sufficiency, call of “deglobalization”, is a reaction to these vulnerabilities.
Recent news sources point out that China, for example, is focusing on strengthening its internal market through the “double circulation” to reduce dependence on the external market . Similarly, Japan has encouraged the relocation of its companies within the country or to other Southeast Asian countries to mitigate risks . The India, with its policies “Make in India”, aims to reduce dependence on imports, especially from China . Brazil has also explored greater diversification of its trading partners and the valorization of its domestic industry to increase economic resilience .
This trend of deglobalization can generate significant risks to international stability and peace. Economic interdependence has functioned as a deterrent to conflict by creating complex networks of mutual interest that make war economically disastrous. Reducing these interconnections can increase the likelihood of disputes and conflicts, as countries become more self-sufficient and less concerned about the economic repercussions of their actions on the international stage.
In conclusion, economic interdependence has been fundamental to international stability and peace in recent decades. However, the current movement towards deglobalization represents a potential risk to this stability. It is crucial that policymakers balance the need for economic resilience with maintaining the benefits of global interdependence, to prevent the world from returning to a state of rivalries and conflicts exacerbated by economic disintegration. International cooperation and the construction of new forms of economic integration are essential to guarantee a peaceful and prosperous future.
